If you ask Trump who he most wants to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the answer is only one: Kevin Hassett. This former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump era and current director of the White House National Economic Council is aggressively challenging for the position of Federal Reserve chairman with a 'growth above all' stance.
The market's reaction to this candidate is not one of expectation, but of fear—fear that he might actually take the position.
Hassett's 'growth cult': 2% inflation? GDP 4% is the only thing that matters.
Hassett's economic philosophy can be summarized in one sentence: 'Growth is everything, inflation is secondary.'
In his view, the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, which is regarded as a standard, is not 'the Bible', but rather an 'upper limit'. The real mission should be to promote 4% GDP growth, create more jobs, and stimulate more economic activity. He has publicly criticized the current interest rate level as 'a bit high', insisting that 'not cutting rates now is a very bad timing'.
What this statement translates into market language is:
• Interest rates will be pushed down to below 3%, even approaching historic lows near 1%.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) has ended, restarting QE is not a question of 'if' but 'when'.
• The Federal Reserve will transform from 'the cruel foster father' into half 'a father figure', and the liquidity gates will be fully opened.
From 3% to 1%: an 'unlimited' rate cut storm.
What the market is most worried about is that Hassett will drag the Federal Reserve into the abyss of 'politicized rate cuts'.
The traditional pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts is 0.25% each time, gradually. But Hassett's style suggests he may adopt 'violent rate cuts' of 0.5% or even 1%. His logic is simple: debt is too high, growth is too slow, and strong measures are necessary.
This will trigger a chain reaction on global assets:
U.S. Treasury market: The 10-year yield could drop from 4% to below 2.5% in an instant, but in the long term, it could soar due to uncontrolled inflation, resulting in a steepening curve.
Dollar index: If the dollar interest rate drops to 1%, the DXY index could fall below 95, entering a long-term depreciation channel.
Risk assets frenzy: U.S. tech stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies will welcome an epic liquidity feast.
Gold and Bitcoin: as 'anti-devaluation' assets, they will become the main safe haven for institutional funds.
Timeline of the crypto market: Bull market dragged to the second half of 2026.
If Hassett takes office, he will completely rewrite the Bitcoin bull market cycle.
The current market bets that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is about 71%, with a cumulative cut of 75-100 basis points before March 2026. However, Hassett may compress this process to within 6 months and simultaneously initiate QE.
This means:
• Q2 2026: Interest rates drop below 3%, Bitcoin surpasses 150,000 USD.
• Q3 2026: QE restarts, Ethereum hits 10,000 USD.
• Q4 2026: The scale of stablecoins expands to 2 trillion USD, and the total market value of the entire crypto market exceeds 8 trillion USD.
This is not a prediction, but a deduction: when the Federal Reserve becomes a 'money printing machine', the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' will upgrade from a speculative story to a must-have option for institutional asset allocation.
The brutal truth: are you really prepared to endure this round of market?
However, behind this 'money printing machine' bull market lies the most brutal paradox:
The faster it rises, the harder it falls. Hassett's aggressive interest rate cuts could ignite inflation in 2026, forcing the Federal Reserve to quickly tighten policies, and the crypto market will experience 'rollercoaster' fluctuations. The 'mining disaster' in May 2021 and the 'Luna collapse' in 2022 both tell us: liquidity-driven markets will bleed heavily when liquidity pulls back.
Institutional frenzy, retail investors left behind. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and other institutions have already positioned themselves through ETFs and RWA, while retail investors are still debating 'is it a tail-end market?'. When Bitcoin rises from 150,000 to 200,000, most people will exit due to 'fear of heights', ultimately loading up on altcoins and losing everything in the correction.
The politicization of the central bank's credit crisis. If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, market concerns over the dollar's credit will intensify, potentially accelerating the global process of 'de-dollarization'. Bitcoin may benefit in the short term, but will face a more complex macro environment in the long run.
Investor survival rule: survive in a 'harsh market'.
In the face of a possible 'Hassett market', retail investors must abandon illusions and turn to anti-fragile strategies:
1. Reject high leverage: leverage above 3 times is equivalent to suicide when volatility amplifies. The market in the Hassett era will be 'slow rise, sharp fall', and leverage will lead to liquidation during corrections.
2. Holding coins is better than trading: during the process of interest rates dropping to 1%, holding BTC spot is wiser than frequent trading. Continuous inflow of institutional funds will raise the bottom, but short-term fluctuations will wash out all leverage.
3. Focus on stablecoin expansion: Hassett will promote banks' participation in stablecoin issuance. The expansion of compliant stablecoins like USDC and DAI will be a key indicator for the crypto market to accept large amounts of funds.
4. Set a 'fear take-profit point': when Bitcoin surpasses 150,000 USD, forcibly take profits of 20% every 10% increase. This is not bearish, but a way to have 'escape' ammunition left after the ultimate frenzy.
Conclusion: Don't ask if the bull market will come, first ask yourself if you can withstand it.
If Hassett takes office, the next bull market for Bitcoin will follow the logic of 'printing money to lift the market'. It might only take 6 months to rise from 90,000 to 200,000. However, this 'market that makes you want to exit but can't' is the ultimate test of human nature.
Remember what old Stone said: in an era of overflowing liquidity, making money is easy, but holding onto profits is hard. When everyone is immersed in the illusion of 'the Federal Reserve being a father figure', maintaining a sense of clarity is the only rule to navigate through bulls and bears.
The real party will only just begin in 2026, but the ticket is your risk management ability, not leverage. #FederalReserve #Hassett #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #InterestRateCutExpectations
Risk warning: there is uncertainty in personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, and Hassett's policy tendencies may be influenced by the Senate hearings. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please manage your positions carefully and avoid going all-in. #币安区块链周 #山寨季将至？ #加密市场观察 $BTC
