HYPE breaks below the lower Bollinger band and 'squats' — is it a trap or a real breakout?
Summary in one sentence: The price has entered the edge of the 2-week VAL, with RSI 25 approaching the year's low, high positions + positive funding rates suggest short covering is beginning to flow back, short-term speculative value > trend value.
Key interval structure and volume distribution
• Value anchoring: POC 54.80 (range 54.69-54.90) is the densest trading area in 2 weeks, deviating 18% from the current price, with the medium-term short target still pointing here.
• HVN buffer: 54.15 and 53.94 together have a transaction of 530 million USDT, forming the first rebound selling pressure; the recent HVN below falls at 46.02-46.12, almost overlapping with the current price of 46.21, forming a 'thin cushion'.
• LVN rapid penetration zone: 43.44-44.41 five LVN levels in succession, with a transaction of only 90-280 million, breaking below 43.3 will vacuum down to 41.2 (VPVR lowest price).
• 70% value zone 46.02-56.51, the current price is at the lower 'edge', statistically oversold but not an absolute bottom.
Market cycle
VPVR structure shows 'top heavy and bottom light', VAL edge + RSI <30 conforms to the characteristics of the final stage of a downward oscillation, if 43.3 is not broken, it will enter the 43-54 large range oscillation; breaking below will open the bear market acceleration window.
Trading strategy (VPVR range)
Aggressive: Buy near 46.00, stop loss 45.30 (lower band -0.5×ATR), target 54.15 (first HVN), RR 1:2.1.
Conservative: Wait for 15m close below 46.50 and volume > average 120% then pull back to buy at 46.2, stop loss 45.75, target 54.8 (POC), RR 1:1.8.
Cautious: If it breaks below 45.3 again and closes within LVN on 30m, reverse to short, stop loss 46.0, target 41.2, RR 1:1.9.
LP market making suggestions
Expecting 24h volatility of 1.8-2.2 times ATR (≈1.4-1.7 USDT), can place a 0.5% price difference to market make in the range of 45.3-47.0, inventory ratio 1:1.2, set a 5% total stop loss, be wary of sudden drops in OI or negative funding rates leading to instant gaps.
Risk and invalidation conditions
Long invalidation: 1h close below 45.00 and OI increases >2%; short invalidation: volume returns to 48.30 (first selling pressure below VAH) and stabilizes for 2h. External: macro liquidity events or platform regulatory announcements can instantly break through LVN.
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$HYPE