Spot 3.21 has dropped into the lowest 5% range in two weeks, RSI 19+ order book buying pressure 1.61 times, there is a 'oversold rebound' window in the short term, but the long-term cycle is still in a bear market structure, advisable to enter and exit quickly.



Key interval structure and trading volume distribution
• Value anchor POC: 3.366 (124 million U trading), current price down +4.8%, which is a bear-dominated area (DownVol 62%).
• Buffer HVN: 3.343-3.383 two overlapping levels, forming the first rebound ceiling; if it stands back above 3.38, it can look up to POC.
• Rapid crossing LVN: 3.208-3.230 trading only 4.3-6.3 million U, easy to accelerate after breaking down, the current price is right at the lower edge of this area, considered 'on the edge of a cliff'.
• 70% transaction area: 3.32-3.81; current price is at the lower edge outside the area, considered statistically oversold, but not an absolute bottom.

Momentum verification
In the past 2 weeks, the LVN+POC area DownVol has been greater than 60%, with clear seller dominance; however, the 1h RSI at 19.4 is the lowest in a year, with a near-end order book showing more buys than sells (+639k USDT), short-term bearish momentum is excessive, and there is a demand for a pullback to HVN.

Auxiliary judgment
1h Bollinger Band lower limit 3.17, price is close to the limit; MA200 3.56 far above, long-term trend bearish; OI increased by 1.6% in 24h but funding rate remains positive, short positions have not fully pressed down, rebound height is limited.

Order book anomaly
The total amount of buy orders at 3.0/2.7 two levels is 860,000 USDT, forming a potential 'liquidity vacuum' protective moat below; above, the 3.5-3.8 four levels of sell walls accumulate to 1,800,000 USDT, rebounding to this level may face substantial selling pressure.

Market cycle
Since the high point of 4.17 in September, the structural low has shifted downwards, VPVR shows 'heavy above and light below', determined to be a bearish continuation oscillation; spot position should be ≤30%, wait for the return to the central range before considering adding positions.

Trading strategy (VPVR structure)
Aggressive: Current price 3.21±0.01 small position long, stop loss at 3.198 (outside LVN -0.5×ATR 0.023), target 3.343 (recent HVN), RR≈5.8.
Conservative: Wait for 15m close below 3.23 then pull back to enter long, stop loss same as 3.198, target POC 3.366, RR≈5.1.
Conservative: If the rebound fails to break above 3.34-3.38, short position can be taken, stop loss at 3.40, target back to 3.25, RR≈2.3.

LP market-making suggestion
ATR 0.046, daily actual volatility 4.3%, moderate fluctuation; suggest placing both buy and sell orders in the range of 3.20-3.38, with a spacing of 0.8%×ATR, depth referenced from buy wall 480,000 USDT/sell wall 400,000 USDT, pay attention to the vacuum area below 3.17, set a hard stop loss of 0.15 USDT to prevent flash crash.

Risk and failure conditions
If the spot hourly close breaks below 3.198 and LVN increases in volume, then the oversold condition fails, or quickly tests down to 3.05; if macro sentiment suddenly turns (the market breaks below the previous low), all rebound plans are paused.

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