DOGE 24h fell again by 4.9%, RSI only 19, price closely adheres to the lower band of the 1h Bollinger Band, yet simultaneously falls outside the 70% trading zone — a short-term sentiment ice point coexists with a vacuum of chips, both bulls and bears are waiting for a volume K line to determine the direction.
【Key Range and Trading Distribution】
• Value Anchor: POC=0.2397 (range 0.2391-0.2403), the densest trading in the past two weeks, current price 0.2311 is about 3.7% lower than POC, falling into the 'discount zone'.
• Upper HVN Buffer Zone: 0.2385 (0.2378-0.2391) and 0.2409 (0.2403-0.2415), forming the first and second pullback resistance.
• Lower LVN Gap: 0.2262 (0.2256-0.2268), low trading 'air layer', once broken, it can quickly slide to 0.21.
• 70% transaction area VAL=0.2348, VAH=0.2947; the current price is below VAL, indicating 'oversold edge' according to VPVR standards.
【Momentum Verification】
• Near POC Up/Down=0.41, neutral slightly bearish; but the Up/Down in the LVN area 0.2262 is only 0.28, sellers dominate absolutely, indicating that if it dips, it will accelerate.
• In the last 4h, net outflow of contracts -87M USDT, with price and volume declining simultaneously, the main force has not yet significantly replenished.
【Auxiliary Indicators】
• MA200=0.2579, deviation -10.4%, long-term bearish; 1h lower Bollinger Band at 0.2282, opening downwards, still weak in the short term.
• OI decreased by 1.83% in the past 24h, long-short ratio increased from 3.19 to 3.45, bears are reducing positions slightly faster, providing a weak reverse buffer.
【Order Book Overview】
Buy wall at 153 million @0.20, sell wall at 84 million @0.249; near-end buy orders increased by +909k, but the liquidity pool at 0.23-0.228 is only about 5 million USDT, depth is average, flash crash elasticity is poor.
【Cycle Positioning】
Since 0.322 has fallen by 17%, the VPVR structure presents 'heavy on top and light on bottom', currently in a mid-term downward channel + a short-term oversold 'oscillating bearish' ending phase; if there are no new negative factors, buying on dips in the spot market is better than chasing shorts at high positions.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Aggressive: Buy lightly at the current price of 0.231, stop loss at 0.2256 (LVN lower edge -0.5ATR), target at 0.2385 (first HVN), RR≈1.3.
2. Conservative: Wait for a retest of LVN 0.226-0.228 and a volume stop-drop on the 1h chart before entering, stop loss at 0.222, target at 0.239 (POC), RR≈2.0.
3. Cautious: After breaking through 0.2348 (VAL) and stabilizing, wait for a pullback to buy, stop loss at 0.230, target at 0.249 (order book sell wall), RR≈2.8.
（ATR=0.0029, no missing data）
【LP Market Making Tips】
It is recommended to place both-sided orders in the range of 0.226-0.239, grid width 0.0013 (≈0.5×ATR), single leg inventory cap 20%, beware of breaking below 0.225 triggering LVN air layer, adjust positions or reduce holdings in a timely manner.
【Risks and Failures】
• If the 1h closing price is below 0.225 and LVN breaks out with volume, the bears will continue, and long positions must have strict stop losses.
• Deterioration of macro sentiment or large transfers on the Dogecoin blockchain may trigger selling pressure, which could render 'oversold' ineffective.
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