BNB breaks the psychological barrier of a thousand dollars, can the 'value return' script play out in the oversold zone?
Price 983 just stepped into the lower edge of the 2-week trading volume 70% range, RSI 29 approaching the lowest level of the year, short-term selling pressure has exhausted but bulls have yet to express their stance, the market is waiting for the 'volume rebound' signal.
Key Range Structure
• Value Anchor: POC = 993.7, nearly 1.07 million transactions, the watershed for bulls and bears.
• HVN Buffer: 983.6 and 987.0 two accumulation areas totaling 1.2 million, forming a thick wall at 980-990, breaking down accelerates, returning above looks for a rebound.
• LVN Gap: The 865 area has only 47,000, representing a potential 'air layer'; if it breaks down the lower edge of 977 with volume, the probability of sliding to 865 sharply increases.
• 70% Trading Band 878-1044, current price is at 11% percentile within the band, biased towards the lower edge but not deviated.
Momentum Verification
In the past 2 weeks, HVN range Up/Down ratio is 0.49-0.56, balanced between bulls and bears; 1h buy orders 1.64× sell orders, short-term shield has not dissipated, need a 15m level to show >60% Up-Volume to confirm a rebound.
Auxiliary Indicators
• Bollinger Band 1h lower edge 977 has broken, price is running along the band; MA200 1005 downward, forming 'pressure level stacking'.
• Contract OI down 2.87% in 24h, funding rate slightly positive 0.003%, shorts are mainly reducing positions, downward momentum slows but not reversed.
Cycle Positioning
2-week perspective is in the middle of a high-level retracement, not entering a bear market extension; spot 30d net inflow +202k BNB, long-term chips are still absorbing, determining 'oscillation downwards' rather than a one-sided bear.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Small long near 983, stop loss 977 (-0.6×ATR), target 993 (POC), RR≈1.7.
Stable: Wait for 15m to close above 987 and Up-Volume >60% to follow long, stop loss below 983, target 997/1005, RR≈2.0.
Conservative: If 977 breaks down with volume, reverse to short, stop loss 983, target 865 (LVN), RR≈2.3.
LP Market Making
It is recommended to place both sides of the order in the 980-993 range, width 0.6×ATR (≈5.5), quickly hedge after eating orders; beware of a 30% slippage caused by breaking 977, reserve 20% position to deal with sudden spikes.
Risk
Failing to hold 977 and not being able to recover in 1h close, significant outflow in spot or macro black swan, all may render the 'value return' script invalid, requiring immediate position reduction.
