Prices are being pressed against the 'value magnet' between 0.90 and 0.93 by an invisible hand, while trading volume quietly tilts towards the bulls - this 2% narrow range may be brewing a 10% flash crash or flash rally.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value anchoring zone: POC 0.922 (trading volume 1.22 billion), 70% of the transactions in the past two weeks have revolved around this, making it a T-junction of 'long and short contention'.
2. High trading volume area:
• HVN-1 0.918 (1.18 billion) - strong intraday support; if it pulls back without breaking, it can be seen as bulls holding the line.
• HVN-2 0.926 (1.22 billion) - the first selling pressure above; a breakthrough will open up space.
3. Low trading volume gap:
• LVN-1 0.760 (only 0.65 billion) - if it falls below 0.90, the price will 'vacuum' down to here.
• LVN-2 1.021 (0.38 billion) - if it stabilizes at 0.94, it can quickly hit 1.02.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 0.847~0.977, the current price of 0.917 just falls in the middle of the range, neither overbought nor oversold, direction choice is imminent.
[Momentum Validation]
• POC area Up/Down Volume ratio is 49:51, long and short are balanced; however, nearby at 0.926 HVN, there is 601M Up Volume (accounting for 54%), indicating the main force is testing the waters.
• The middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 0.916 and MA200 at 0.905 form a 'golden cross', and if the price breaks above the upper track at 0.930, it will trigger a trend continuation.
[Market Cycle]
In the mid-cycle 'consolidation box' of a bull market: long-term funding rates remain slightly positive, contract positions decreased by 1.95% over 24h, but bulls increased positions by +13.4%, probability of box breakout > probability of box breakdown.
[Trading Strategy]
• Aggressive: Current price 0.917 light long positions, stop loss 0.908 (below HVN-1 0.5×ATR≈0.009), target 0.940 (lower edge of LVN-2), risk-reward ratio 2.6.
• Stable: Wait for a pullback to 0.910~0.912 (inner edge of HVN-1) to see a bullish candle before re-entering, stop loss at 0.905, target 0.930, risk-reward ratio 3.0.
• Conservative: If it breaks through 0.930 with volume, you can go long up to 0.955, stop loss at 0.923, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
Strategy invalidation: If the daily close falls below 0.900 and 1h Up Volume <40%, stop loss immediately.
[Risk Warning]
If there is a surge in US Treasury yields or negative regulatory news, the support at 0.90 will collapse instantly; if the contract funding rate turns negative >0.02%, long positions must be halved.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to trade in a narrow range LP between 0.908 and 0.928:
• The lower bound 0.908 is strong support HVN-1, and the upper bound 0.928 is resistance tested multiple times recently;
• Range width 2.2%, annualized trading fee income can cover 5% volatility wear and tear;
• If the price breaks above 0.928, immediately cancel the order and follow the trend.
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Acknowledgment: 'Silicon-based Flow' provides the foundational model!
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