ETH has decreased in volume by -0.47% within 24h, yet remains firmly at 94.8% of the Bollinger upper band, RSI78 approaching overheating; meanwhile, the sell orders 1.66× crush buy orders, contract OI has slightly increased by 0.29% in 24h, but the long-short ratio has shifted from 3.69→4.08, showing 'price stagnation + long accumulation' divergence—a typical pre-top distribution eve. VPVR shows 70% of trades accumulated between 4189~4749, current price 4784 has deviated from the upper edge of the value zone by 1×ATR, ready for 'value return'.
---
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchor (POC): 4301 (huge volume 2.82M)
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 4618~4656: Bullish Retracement Buffer Zone
• 4208~4245: Short Covering Buffer Zone
3. Low Volume Node (LVN):
• 4879~4889: Upper 'Vacuum', if volume breaks out can instantly surge to 5K
• 3759~3778: Lower 'Cavity', accelerates to 4300 after breaking 4749
4. 70% Value Zone: 4189~4749; current price is outside the upper edge, short-term overbought.
---
Momentum Validation
• 4879 LVN: Up Vol 100%, but total only 51k, buy orders are 'inflated'.
• 4618 HVN: Up Vol 63%, bulls still in control, can be seen as a pullback buying point.
• 4301 POC: Up Vol 57%, balanced long and short, breaking it confirms trend reversal.
---
Market Cycle
Weekly level still in the third wave of the bull market, but 1h~4h has shown 'volume-price divergence + open interest divergence' short-term top building signals, defined as 'high-level oscillation distribution phase'.
---
Trading Strategy
| Style | Entry Price | Stop Loss Price | Target Price | Risk-Reward Ratio | Remarks |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------|
| Aggressive Short | 4785 | 4815 | 4618 | 5.6 | Bollinger upper band + selling pressure resonance, stop loss 0.5×ATR |
| Stable Short | 4749 | 4780 | 4618 | 4.3 | Pullback after breaking the upper edge of the 70% value zone |
| Conservative Long | 4618 | 4588 | 4749 | 4.4 | Pullback HVN + Up Vol > 60%, limited to short term |
Risk Control: If 1h close is above 4815 or Up Vol continuously <40%, immediately reverse stop loss.
---
LP Market Making Suggestions
It is recommended to place bidirectional liquidity in the 4618~4749 USDT range:
• The lower edge of the range is close to HVN, high volume, volatility converges;
• The upper edge of the range is the top of the 70% value zone, short-term ceiling;
• Funding rate slightly positive, beneficial for collecting long interest.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
Thanks: 'Silicon-based Flow' provides the base large model!
Use the invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr
$ETH
