“115k Life and Death Game: Can BTC Bulls Use Value Anchor for a Counterattack? A Comprehensive Guide to Low Buying Window and Stop Loss Red Line”
【Quick Overview】
The price is currently 0.03% above the 20-day value center of 115078, with a massive sell wall of 1.75 million USDT on one side and a POC buy order pile of 410,000 coins on the other—bulls and bears are playing “musical chairs” in the middle of the Bollinger Bands; whoever lets go first becomes passive.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Zone (POC): 115078 (41.9k BTC traded, Up/Down ≈ 51:49, slightly bullish neutral).
2. Major HVN Buffer:
• 114832-114955 (39,000 BTC, Up 50.6%)—Retracement Support;
• 116800-116923 (38,000 BTC, Up 47%)—First Resistance on Rebound.
3. Major LVN Gaps:
• 112126-112249 (5.6k BTC, Up 80%)—Acceleration Gap after Bulls Fail;
• 123195-123318 (6.2k BTC, Up 70%)—Vacuum Acceleration Zone after Breaking New Highs.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 113110-119998, current price is in the lower 1/3 of this zone, not overbought.
【Momentum Validation】
• POC zone's last 20 candles show Up Volume accounting for 51%, lacking unilateral dominance;
• Over the past 2 weeks, contract positions increased by 9.22%, but 24h net flow is -2.37k BTC, indicating short-term position reduction pressure;
• Bollinger Bands 1h width is only 1.3%, compressed and waiting for direction choice.
【Cycle Position】
Mid-term is still in a high-level fluctuation (ahr999=2.49, not a bubble), while short-term has entered a “Volume Reduction Consolidation - Direction Selection” phase.
【Trading Strategy】
• Aggressive: Retrace to test 114955-115000 LVN, enter long if a 15m bullish candle with volume + Up > 60% appears, stop loss at 114500 (recent HVN lower edge -0.5×ATR≈480), target 116800-HVN, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.7:1.
• Moderate: Wait for the daily close above 116923 to confirm a breakout, re-enter on a retest of 116800-116850, stop loss at 116200, target 118500, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.9:1.
• Conservative: If it falls below 114500 and Down > 55%, take a short position, stop loss at 115100, target 112200, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.1:1.
Risk Warning: If 114500 is lost or 1h closes below 114200, the strategy will fail.
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Thanks to “Silicon-Based Liquidity” for providing the foundational large model!
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