SOL is near the upper rail of the 2-week value area at 205, "high places are not warm," but core buying is anchored at 181.7; selling wall pressure, moderate funding rate, short-term may pull back LVN before reaching new highs—seize the "squat jump" window with a 3R risk-reward ratio.
[Key Range Structure]
1. Value anchor area: POC 181.75 is the largest transaction pile in 2 weeks, with Up Volume 61% still leaning towards bulls.
2. High volume area: HVN-1 180.38-182.77 (5 consecutive levels), HVN-2 191.99-193.36, price falling back here is likely to attract buying support.
3. Low volume gap: LVN-1 208.40-209.76 (upper vacuum), LVN-2 166.72-172.87 (lower vacuum), both breaking/pulling back are easy to quickly penetrate.
4. 70% Value Area: 178.33-202.93; the current price is close to VAH 202.93, short-term overbought, waiting for mean reversion.
[Momentum Verification]
• In the 181.7-185.0 range, Up Volume 60-65%, bulls are active;
• In the 205-210 range, Up Volume is only 45%, selling pressure increases;
• Position: 24h OI +9.56%, but net long increases 12.6%, volume-price divergence indicates a short-term pullback demand.
[Market Cycle]
In the "high-level oscillation extension segment" of the medium-term rising channel, no bear market structure has appeared; if 178.3 does not break, the trend remains bullish.
[Trading Strategy]
• Aggressive: Long at pullback LVN-2 171.5±1, stop loss 169.3 (below HVN outside), target 181.7 (POC) and 191.9 (upper HVN), risk-reward ratio 3.2R.
• Steady: Wait for a pullback at 181.7 POC and 1h Up Volume > 60% to see an engulfing/hanging man, entry 181.7-182.1, stop loss 179.8, target 191.9, risk-reward ratio 2.9R.
• Conservative: Break and close above 209.8 (upper edge of LVN-1) with volume > 1.5 times, chase long, stop loss 206.8, target 220, risk-reward ratio 2.8R.
Risk Warning: If the 1h closes below 200.6 (Bollinger Band lower bound), the strategy is invalid, exit completely and observe.
[LP Market Making Suggestion]
It is suggested to focus LP in the 178.3-202.9 range:
• The lower limit 178.3 is the lower edge of the Value Area + MA200 support, with dense buying;
• The upper limit 202.9 is VAH, with a selling wall at 210 forming natural resistance;
• Range covers 70% of transaction volume, low slippage, stable fee income.
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