In the past two weeks, AAVE completed the 'hand-over - wash - attack again' trilogy above the value anchor of $302, with $358 becoming a watershed for bulls to continue life; if it pulls back to LVN 340 without breaking, it remains a strong consolidation, otherwise it may revisit the $300 bottom.
[Key Range Structure]
1. Value Anchor: POC 302.06 (trading volume 595,000) is the core cost of the past 20 days, with buy orders above at 57% and sell orders below at 43%, overall bullish.
2. HVN Buffer: The range of 295.34-310.45 forms a 10 consecutive HVN, with cumulative trading >4 million, serving as a 'safety belt' for bulls; if it falls below 295, the bullish structure weakens.
3. LVN gap: 340.0-342.34 trading volume only 71,000, is a short-term 'vacuum zone', once the price breaks out with volume, it can quickly rush to 358-367.
4. 70% Trading Zone: 281.92-367.52, current price 358 is near the upper edge, RSI 59.3 not overbought, but the upper band 367.42 is close at hand, short-term pullback demand exists.
[Momentum Verification]
• 340-358 range: Up Volume 61%, buyers slightly dominant, need to observe if it can increase volume >1.5 times the average;
• 302-310 range: Up Volume 57%, strong bullish defense intention;
• If it falls below 295, Down Volume will quickly expand to over 55%, triggering a stop-loss chain.
[Auxiliary Signals]
• MA200 303.98, current price deviates +17.8%, medium-term bullish;
• 1h Bollinger Bands opening upwards, middle track 352.11 is the intraday support;
• Contract positions increased 18.7% in 24h, but the long-short ratio dropped from 2.53 to 1.87, short-term bulls are overheated and need to be cautious of a rapid pullback.
[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive: Pullback to 340.0-342.3 LVN with volume stop loss, enter at 341, stop loss at 338 (below HVN 337.3), target 358/367, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
Steady: Wait for low absorption at 295-300 HVN, enter at 298, stop loss at 294 (LVN 290 outside), target 320/340, risk-reward ratio ≈4.2.
Conservative: If volume breaks 367.5 and Up Volume >65%, can chase long to 380, stop loss at 363, risk-reward ratio ≈2.1.
[Risk Warning]
If the 1h closing price falls below 337.3 (recent HVN lower edge) or shows >60% Down Volume, the bullish structure fails, and one should decisively stop loss.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to place orders in the 295-310 range for market making: this range has dense HVN, active trading, and low slippage; at the same time, the $302 POC provides natural value support, which can reduce impermanent loss.
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