SOL current price is stuck at $204, neither breaking the 'value anchor' at 182 nor breaking the 'selling pressure canopy' at 210, in the short term it looks more like a low-volume washout—bullish chips are quietly accumulating, just waiting for a strong volume candle to ignite the next round of 10%+ pulse.
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Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Area
POC: 181.92 (Range 181.58-182.27)
• This area has traded 143 million units in two weeks, accounting for 4.1% of the total, making it the most concentrated area for bulls.
• Up Volume 62%, still dominated by buyers, a pullback to this level is seen as the 'golden buy zone'.
2. High Volume Node (HVN)
• 180.53-184.70 continuous 6 levels of HVN form a 'thick wall', once the price falls back, it will slow down step by step.
• 204.17-204.86 is also HVN, with intense back-and-forth trading during the day, can be viewed as a 'consolidation center' in the short term.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN)
• Upper LVN: 210.42-211.81 (only 2.63 million units traded), once broken, there is no resistance, can quickly surge to 220.
• Lower LVN: 161.07-166.98, if volume breaks 200, it will accelerate towards 165.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area
178.45-207.64; current price 204 is at the upper edge 28% percentile, slightly overbought but not extreme.
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Momentum Verification and Dominant Direction
• POC area Up Volume 62%, HVN 180-184 also maintains above 60%, bulls still control the market.
• 1h Bollinger Band middle line 206.0, price is running close to the lower band, RSI 49 neutral, waiting for volume to choose direction.
• Contract positions 24h +4.22%, but funding rate only +0.01%, leverage long is moderate, no overheating observed.
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Market Cycle Judgment
Mid-term still in 'bull market continuation consolidation':
• 14 days holding +32%, price is sideways, clear chip lock-in.
• Spot trading concentration area 183-199 accounts for 25%, is building momentum for the next round of surge.
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Trading Strategy (Based on VPVR)
| Strategy | Entry | Stop Loss | Target | Risk-Reward Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Pullback Long | 202.0 (Lower edge of LVN) | 199.5 (Below HVN) | 210.5 (Upper edge of LVN) | 3.4 : 1 |
| Conservative Pullback Long | 182.5 (POC±0.5×ATR) | 180.0 (Outside HVN) | 192.0 (Upper HVN) | 3.8 : 1 |
| Breakout Follow Long | 211.0 (LVN breakout confirmation) | 208.0 (pullback not broken) | 220.0 (far-end HVN) | 3.0 : 1 |
Risk Control: If 1h closes below 199 and Down Volume > 55%, the bullish structure fails, reverse short to 195.
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LP Market Making Suggestions
Range: 181.5-210.0
Reason:
• 181.5 is the lower edge of POC, 210 is the starting point of the upper LVN, with 70% of trading in this range over the past two weeks.
• Low funding rate and narrowed volatility, suitable for grid trading for fees; extreme breakout at 210 or fall below 181 means stop loss and withdrawal.
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