ETC plummets to an 'ice point'! $23.5 life-and-death line, should we buy the dip or cut losses? One article to understand the dealer's script
Summary in one sentence: ETC has seen a 2.2% decline in volume over the past 24 hours, with the price closely adhering to the lower Bollinger Band, RSI at only 24.8, and long positions quietly increasing but facing selling pressure in the spot market— the 'spring' of bulls and bears is getting tighter and could explode at any moment.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring zone: POC 23.61 (volume 3.83 million) is a battleground for bulls and bears, the current price 23.49 is only 0.5% away, and if it breaks, it will trigger a value return.
2. High trading volume zone: HVN 22.12–22.54 (3.00–3.70 million) and 23.12–23.61 (3.15–3.83 million) form a double buffer, breaking below 22.12 will directly probe 20.8.
3. Low trading volume gap: LVN 19.48–20.72 (240–820 thousand) is a vacuum zone, and once it breaks through with volume, it can quickly slide to 19.0.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: 21.46–24.85, current price is at the lower edge of the interval, short-term oversold but not extreme.
Momentum validation
• POC zone Up/Down 64% buyers slightly favored, but volume-price divergence; upper level 24.8–25.0 LVN only 150–250 thousand, light resistance.
• The lower Bollinger Band 23.32 has been reached, MA200 22.11 provides distant support; open interest increased by 0.56% in 24h, leveraged long positions continue to accumulate.
Market cycle
The mid-term is still in a bearish consolidation box (19–26), and the short-term is in the 'panic final stage', if it holds 23.0–23.2, a rebound can brew.
Trading strategy
• Aggressive: Buy small positions between 23.30–23.40, stop loss at 22.90 (below HVN), first target 24.20 (above HVN), risk-reward ratio 2.1.
• Conservative: Wait for volume to retest POC 23.61 and Up Vol > 60% before following in, stop loss at 23.20, target 24.85, risk-reward ratio 2.5.
• Cautious: If it breaks below 22.90, short to 22.12 or 21.71, stop loss at 23.20, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Risk warning: If the 1h close drops below 22.80 and open interest suddenly decreases, the strategy is invalid.
LP market-making advice
It is recommended to place orders to market-make in the 22.90–24.20 range: close to HVN support below, near the upper edge of the value area above, with dense transactions and moderate volatility, which can earn transaction fees and wait for the range breakout to withdraw orders.
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