Price hangs between the mid-Bollinger and the 4300 value anchor, with 24h contract OI continuously declining and spot net outflow, resembling a dual script of 'high-level flood release + low-level accumulation'—only the last volume candle decides the direction.
Key interval structure
1. Value Anchoring Zone
POC: 4302.5 (2-week maximum transaction, strong capital consensus)
Current price 4714.9 has deviated from 70% Value Area (4172~4767), at the 'overbought edge', short-term demand to return to POC.
2. High Volume Node (HVN)
• 4655~4665: Recent last defense line for bulls, a pullback to this level easily triggers buying rebounds.
• 4280~4320: Overlaps with POC, if it breaks below 4655, it will quickly slide to this zone.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN)
• 4748~4767: Upper vacuum zone, if it breaks through 4767 with volume, it can head straight for 4895 Bollinger upper band.
• 4628~4646: The first void below, if lost, can drop to 4600 within 2h.
4. Momentum Validation
4655 HVN nearby Up Volume only 57%, balance between long and short; 4748 HVN Down Volume 54%, selling pressure slightly dominates.
Auxiliary judgment
• MA200: 4448, deviation 5.99%, still bullish in the medium term, but short-term deviation is too large.
• Contract OI 24h -2.72%, funding rate 0.0042% slightly bullish, with long positions reducing dominance.
• Sell orders on the order book piled up 32.23 million > Buy orders 31.87 million, clear short-term selling pressure.
Market Cycle
In the 'mid-term correction phase of a bull market'—the weekly still stands above MA200, but the daily shows high-level contraction + OBV divergence, requiring an 8~12% pullback to clear leverage before resuming upward movement.
Trading Strategy
| Style | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Target 1 / Target 2 | Risk-Reward Ratio | Remarks |
|--------|--------|------|---------------|--------|------|
| Aggressive Long | 4656 | 4627 | 4748 / 4800 | 2.8 | Pullback to LVN + presence of ≥60% Up Volume bullish candlestick |
| Steady Long | 4620 | 4590 | 4690 / 4760 | 2.3 | Wait for 1h close to reclaim 4655 |
| Conservative Short | 4767 | 4805 | 4655 / 4600 | 2.1 | Confirm pullback after breaking 4767, Down Volume ≥ 55% |
Risk Control:
• Strategy Invalidated: If 4655 is breached by a 1h candlestick and Down Volume > 60%, stop loss immediately.
• Position: Fixed risk 1% of account equity, ATR≈45, leverage ≤ 3 times.
LP Market Making Suggestions
Interval: 4620~4760
Reason:
1. Covers the current 70% Value Area, dense trading, high fee income;
2. The upper and lower boundaries correspond to LVN and HVN, low breakthrough probability, high capital utilization;
3. If the price breaks out of the range, a unilateral withdrawal can be made to reduce impermanent loss.
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