BTC dances in the contradiction of 'decreasing volume and rising buy orders', reminiscent of the darkest night before dawn: the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, while positions are quietly flowing back, smart money is 'picking up corpses' in the 112K-114K range.
[Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchor Zone: POC 114983, a must-contest for short-term bulls and bears.
2. High volume zone: HVN 113450, 114727, price often rebounds when it falls to this level.
3. Low volume gap: LVN 111406-111917, 122648-123287, once broken with volume, will accelerate the crossing.
4. 70% volume coverage zone: 112684-119838, current price 112894 is at the lower edge 15%, slightly oversold.
Momentum Validation:
• Near POC Up/Down ≈ 50.8/49.2, seesaw balance.
• 111406-111917 LVN Zone Up Volume 0%, if the volume breaks down it will trigger a short chain.
• 113450 HVN Up Volume 46.9%, can be seen as a short-term bullish buffer.
Auxiliary Indicators:
• Price < MA200(-1.8%) and RSI 30.9, oversold resonance.
• 24h position increased by 2.1%, long-short ratio decreased from 2.10 to 2.04, bulls are still present but cautiously adding positions.
• Market buy pressure 1.69×, spot depth buy orders 21.4M, sell orders 15.8M, short-term support is strong.
[Market Cycle]
At the end of a mid-cycle correction in a bull market: the weekly chart is still in a long-term upward channel, the daily chart is probing the bottom a second time, if it holds 111K-112K, it is expected to restart the upward movement.
[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive: Current price 112890-112950 light long position, stop loss 111400 (LVN lower edge -0.5ATR≈1100), first target 114983 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 1.9.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 112150-112300 (inside VAL) and enter when 15m Up Volume >60%, stop loss 111400, targets 114727/115500, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
Conservative: If the volume breaks down 111400, reverse and short to 110639 LVN, stop loss 112000, risk-reward ratio ≈ 1.7.
Risk warning: If 111K is lost, position increases >3%, macro black swan is a signal of strategy failure; fixed risk ≤ 1% of the account.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to place both-sided liquidity in the 111800-114500 range, reason: this range covers 70% of volume, includes two major HVNs, volatility is contracting, funding rates are low, suitable for earning rebates + price differences.
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