After an 18% single-day surge, ENA is now caught between 'massive turnover at 0.727' and 'bearish peak at 0.76'. In the short term, it will either be a bull retracement or a bull dive; the key is whether the 0.73 value anchoring area can hold.
[Key Range Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value anchoring area (POC): 0.7269, with a transaction of 1.1 billion coins over the past two weeks, accounting for 4.2% of the total, serving as the lifeline for bulls.
2. High volume area (HVN): 0.7187-0.7352, a dense trading range with four layers, forming a strong buffer at 0.72-0.74; the upper level at 0.7971 is a secondary HVN, corresponding to the integer pressure at 0.80.
3. Low volume gap (LVN):
• 0.512-0.545 ancient vacuum area, if it breaks below 0.70 with volume, it may quickly pull back;
• 0.848-0.855 high-level vacuum, breakthrough 0.83 can directly attack 0.90.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.615-0.822, current price 0.7486 at the upper edge, short-term is already at the overbought edge.
[Momentum Verification]
• POC range Up/Down = 634M/457M ≈ 58%, buy orders are slightly better but not absolutely dominant;
• 0.735-0.74 Up/Down ≈ 51%, bulls and bears are in a stalemate;
• 0.797 HVN Up/Down ≈ 55%, bulls need to increase volume to pass.
• 4h contract holding +1.29%, while 12h net outflow -25M, short-term funds are 'pulling in and out', beware of fake breakouts.
[Auxiliary Indicators]
• Price is close to the 1h Bollinger upper band at 0.766, RSI 56, not extreme;
• MA200 = 0.6866, divergence +9%, pullback demand is heating up;
• Spot has seen a net outflow of -43M for 5 consecutive days, bulls need to reverse with increased volume.
[Market Cycle]
In the weekly level 'breakout pullback' phase: long-term bullish, short-term overbought — a typical 'retracement window in a bull market.'
[Trading Strategy]
1. Range pullback (conservative):
Entry 0.723-0.727 (upper edge of LVN + POC), stop-loss at 0.718 (below HVN), target 0.765/0.797, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.9.
2. Breakout chasing (aggressive):
If the 1h closing price breaks above 0.766 with high volume, a pullback to 0.76 that doesn't break can be chased, stop-loss at 0.754, target 0.797-0.83, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
3. Shorting against the trend (counter-trend quick hit):
If 0.766 fakes a breakout and the 1h closing price falls back below 0.755 with DownVol > 60%, a light short position can be taken, stop-loss at 0.762, target 0.728, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1.
[Risk Warning]
• If it loses 0.718 and increases in volume, the strategy is invalidated, reverse to short;
• A sudden shift in macro sentiment or a flash crash in BTC will lead to systemic declines.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to place a dual-sided LP in the range of 0.718-0.766:
• The lower edge of the range is the POC+HVN co-resonance support, the upper edge is the Bollinger upper band + sell wall;
• Range width ≈ 6.5%, annualized fees + funding rate expected to be > 25%, while avoiding the vacuum below 0.70 and high pressure above 0.80, reducing impermanent loss.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
Thanks: 'Silicon-Based Liquidity' for providing the foundational large model!
Use invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr