When the whole network is in FOMO, the on-chain chips quietly pin the 'value anchor' at 113600; the price is racing along the upper Bollinger band, yet leaving 70% of the trading volume behind - this is reminiscent of the last kick before the finish line, just waiting for a whistle to pull back.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC = 113603 (42.9k BTC traded), with long positions still occupying 52.5% above, and ample support below.
2. High trading volume buffer: HVN1 = 113357, HVN2 = 116800, the former is the long position moat, the latter is the short-term resistance.
3. Low trading volume gap: LVN1 = 111635–112127 (vacuum zone, accelerates after breakdown), LVN2 = 122458–123195 (upper short-sell zone, rushes straight to 125k after breakthrough).
4. 70% Value Area: 112619–119998; Current price 116600 is at the upper edge of 68%, short-term overbought.
[Momentum Verification]
• In the range of 113603–113848, Up Volume accounts for 54–55%, buyers are slightly better.
• In the range of 116800–118522, Down Volume accounts for 55–57%, selling pressure is rising.
• Recently, 2h contract positions +0.10%, but long/short delta -0.11, with slight capital withdrawal, suggesting a decline in upward momentum.
[Cycle Judgment]
The large scale is still in a bull market continuation; the short-term is entering a 'last surge + high position fluctuation' transition period, expecting a pullback to POV first, then selecting a direction.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Short-term pullback long (conservative)
Entry: Price first pulls back to 113850–114100 (upper edge of VA + HVN) and 15m Up Volume > 60%
Stop Loss: 113250 (below HVN + 0.5×ATR≈650)
Target: 116800 (upper HVN)
Profit and Loss Ratio = (116800-114000)/(114000-113250)=2800/750≈3.7
2. Breakthrough long (aggressive, only for LVN volume confirmation)
Entry: 120min close volume breakthrough at 118645 (upper edge of LVN), trading volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 20 bars
Stop Loss: 117500 (recently outside HVN)
Target: 122600 (upper LVN median)
Profit and Loss Ratio = (122600-118700)/(118700-117500)=3900/1200≈3.3
3. Counter-trend short (conservative, only for divergence + abnormal order book)
Entry: RSI 1h > 85 and sell orders > buy orders by 2×, place orders at 117800–118000
Stop Loss: 118650 (upper HVN)
Target: 116000 (buy wall below)
Profit and Loss Ratio ≈ 2.0
[Risk Warning]
If 113000 is lost and 1h Down Volume > 60%, Strategy 1 fails; macro black swan or large ETF redemptions can instantly breach LVN, be sure to set stop losses and control position ≤ 1% of the account.
[LP Market Making Range]
It is recommended to place bilateral LP in the range of 113350–114200:
• This area is the upper edge of HVN+VA, with dense trading and low slippage;
• When volatility declines, transaction fee income > impermanent loss, suitable for low-leverage grids.
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