How to seize the golden opportunity after the SOL ‘explosive rise’? Understand the killing threat in the 181~200 dollar range in 3 minutes!
Summary in one sentence: After 8 hours of continuous increases, SOL RSI 82, longs reducing positions, spot buy orders returning, the price is falling from the ‘overbought cloud layer’ towards the value center of 181.6 dollars, and the short-term high volatility window has opened.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring area: POC 181.66 (the largest transaction in two weeks is 149 million USD), with the buyer's active proportion above 61%, serving as the core defensive line for bulls.
2. High transaction volume area: 180.22-183.83, five consecutive HVNs form a ‘thick wall’, making it easy for the price to slow down and rebound when falling back to this level.
3. Low transaction volume gap: LVN 208.42-209.87, LVN 155.63-160.69, will quickly pass through when breaking or retracing.
4. 70% transaction volume coverage area: 177.3-201.9; the current price of 197.9 is close to the upper boundary, indicating that it is at the edge of overbought in the short term.
Momentum validation
• Up Volume near POC is 61%, still leaning towards bullish; however, Up Volume in the 200-210 range is only 48%, indicating increased selling pressure.
• 4-hour contract positions have decreased by 0.43% continuously, while the price has dropped by 1.59%, suggesting a divergence in volume and price indicating bulls are reducing positions.
Market cycle
The mid-term is still in an upward channel, while the short-term has entered a ‘consolidation after a sharp rise’ phase, expecting to first retrace to POC before choosing a direction.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Short lightly above the current price of 197.9, with a stop loss at 200.5 (upper boundary of LVN + 0.5×ATR 2.6), target at 181.7, risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.2.
Conservative: Wait for a retracement to 181.6-182.7 HVN and enter long when there is a 15m level engulfing/hanging man + Up Volume > 60%, stop loss at 179.8, target at 192.2, risk-reward ratio ≈ 5.8.
Cautious: If it falls below 179, observe, and if it returns to 181.6 with volume, then follow up with a long position.
Risk warning
If the 1-hour closing price falls below 177.3 (the lower boundary of the 70% range) or if there is >70% Down Volume, the bullish structure will become ineffective.
LP market-making suggestion
It is recommended to place orders in the range of 181.3-183.5 for market-making: this area overlaps POC + HVN, has sufficient depth and low slippage; leave a 3% buffer up and down to collect both sides' fees and reduce impermanent loss.
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