“WAL Battle at $0.44! Seize the 19% Profit/Loss Ratio Short-term Opportunity, Wait Another Six Months if Missed?”

Market Sketch in One Sentence

After a 9.9% surge in 24 hours, WAL's price is just above the mid-Bollinger Band and 2% above POC at $0.42, but trading volume is shrinking simultaneously— a typical “volume contraction at the top” scenario, suggesting a short-term pullback to POC before choosing a direction.

Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution

1. Value Anchor Zone: POC at $0.4196, with trading in the range of $0.418-$0.420 totaling 880 million pieces, accounting for 4.8% of the total over two weeks, serving as the last defense for the bulls.

2. High Volume Buffer Zone: HVN $0.416-$0.421 (cumulative volume 230 million pieces) and $0.424-$0.426 (cumulative volume 160 million pieces), if the price breaks below, it will quickly slide towards LVN.

3. Low Volume Gap: Upper LVN $0.468-$0.472 (only 2.44 million pieces traded), lower LVN $0.359-$0.368 (2.51 million pieces traded), both are “hollow” areas, and once broken, acceleration is likely.

4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: $0.404-$0.449, with the current price at $0.4408 at the upper edge, indicating short-term overbought conditions.

Momentum Verification

• POC Area Up/Down Volume 52:48, basically balanced; in the upper range of $0.44-$0.45, Up Volume is only 43%, indicating increased selling pressure.

• Contract positions decreased by 2.6% in 24 hours, with a slightly positive funding rate of 0.005%, and bulls have not significantly increased positions, leading to reduced upward momentum.

Auxiliary Judgments

• Bollinger Bands: Price at 64% position, upper band at $0.4498 acts as a short-term ceiling; MA200 at $0.4288 is located at the center of HVN, a pullback here provides support.

• Market Depth: In the last hour, sell orders exceed buy orders by 18%, indicating short-term selling pressure.

Market Cycle

At the tail end of the “B wave rebound” within a medium-term down channel; if POC is lost, C wave will restart.

Trading Strategy

1. Entry: Conservative traders should wait for a long lower shadow or engulfing pattern on a pullback to POC $0.419-$0.420 to go long; aggressive traders may short at the current price of $0.4408 with a light position, stop loss at $0.443.

2. Stop Loss: Long position at $0.4158 (recent HVN lower edge -0.5×ATR); short position at $0.4448 (entry K high +0.5×ATR).

3. Targets: Long position at $0.428 (next HVN), short position at $0.420 (POC).

4. Profit/Loss Ratio: Long position R:R=1:2.1; short position R:R=1:2.8.

Risk Warning

• If volume breaks above $0.45 and stabilizes, immediately stop loss on short positions, and the bullish trend continues.

• Macroeconomic bearishness or contract liquidation events may directly breach POC, requiring a 2% account risk limit.

Acknowledgment: “Silicon-based Flow” provides the foundational large model!

$WAL