From a trading perspective, the unique aspect of notcoin lies in its path of 'close to 100% initial circulation' when NOT was listed. The distribution is heavily weighted towards miners, with Launchpool, ecosystem, and community incentives allocated proportionally. This structure reduces the uncertainty brought by traditional cliff/linear unlocking but also amplifies the 'rhythm of claiming and delivery' into the secondary market. Understanding notcoin requires looking beyond sentiment; it is essential to observe the supply-demand rhythm and the flow of task settlement.
The actionable observation framework is quite simple. First, look at the supply: the actual delivery scale of recent notcoin-related airdrops and task settlements; second, look at the demand: changes in the depth of main exchanges, proportions of active buy orders, and whether cross-exchange price differences are converging over the long term; third, look at conversion: whether wallets strongly related to notcoin tasks are quickly selling off or entering a longer on-market cycle. Compiling these three items into a weekly report is more reliable than 'listening for rumors'.
Risk management also needs to be structured. The activity periods of notcoin often bring intense trading windows, and short-term positions should have strict daily loss limits and holding time limits; medium-term positions should set 'stop-loss on narrative failure,' such as a decline in task completion volume over two consecutive weeks, deterioration in retention for secondary jumps, and thinning of primary market depth. Any decision 'to chase the trend due to hype' is best tied to a 'passive reduction' condition; otherwise, it can easily lead to holding onto emotions while enduring volatility.
For a longer-term judgment, it still returns to the 'degree of usage'. If notcoin's Explore / Offer is reused by more projects, with real interaction volume and retention on TON increasing, and the use of NOT in tasks, governance, and rights going up, then the 'utility value' of NOT will weaken the noise of market sentiment. Conversely, if the quality of activities declines, the cost of anti-witch actions rises, and the willingness of brands to reuse decreases, NOT is likely to return to an event-driven fluctuation rhythm. For readers of Binance Square, a pragmatic suggestion: create a fixed dashboard for notcoin's on-chain address data, trading depth, and task conversion, and then decide on positions, rather than letting secondary prices dictate actions.
