📌 Current situation (20.08.2025)
· Price $BTC BTC: $113,500–$113,700 (correction -1.45% in a day, testing support) .
· Selling pressure: Increased due to the fall of US stocks (Nasdaq -1.4%, S&P500 -0.7%) and outflow from ETFs .
· Key levels:
· Support: $112,000 (buy orders in the order book), $110,053 (100-day SMA), $100,484 (200-day SMA) .
· Resistance: $116,033 (50-day SMA), $120,000 (psychological level) .
📉 Short-term scenario (“First a correction”)
1. Depth of correction:
· Base target: $112,000–$110,000 (liquidity accumulation zone) .
· Extreme scenario: $100,484 (200-day SMA) with negative macro data .
2. Reasons for the pullback:
· Outflow from ETFs: -$523.31 million on 19.08 (leaders: FBTC -$246.89 million, GBTC -$115.53 million) .
· Long liquidations: $116 million in an hour on 19.08 .
· Weak recovery: Low trading volumes and breaking the ascending trend line on the daily chart .
🚀 Long-term scenario (“We will go to $130,000”)
1. Conditions for growth:
· Maintaining support at $110,000 and recovery of price above $116,033 (50-day SMA) .
· Resumption of inflows into ETFs and positive macro data (inflation, Fed rates).
2. Target levels:
· $124,436 (historical maximum) → $130,000 (psychological barrier) .
· $169,886 by the end of 2025 (consensus forecast by Bitget) .
⚡ Trading strategy
Accumulation Buy on retracements $112,000 – $110,000
Stop-loss Upon breaking $110,000 $100,000
Take-profit Locking in profits $124,000 → $130,000
Risk management No more than 5% of capital in a trade —
🔍 Factors influencing the plan
1. Macroeconomics:
· Inflation data (CPI) and Fed decisions will determine risk appetite .
· Correlation with Nasdaq: recovery of tech stocks will support BTC .
2. Internal drivers:
· Great wealth transfer: Inflow of $200+ billion from millennials by 2030 .
· Halving 2024: Historically growth occurs 6–12 months after the event.
💡 Conclusion
· Short-term (1–2 weeks): A correction to $112,000–$110,000 is likely due to outflow from ETFs and weak volumes.
· Medium-term (September-October): Growth to $130,000 while maintaining support and resuming institutional demand.
· Main risk: Breaking $110,000 could intensify selling down to $100,000.
Recommendation: Accumulate in the zone of $112,000–$110,000 with a stop-loss below $100,000. Discipline and monitoring of ETF/macroeconomic news are critical!