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$BTC (~$68,922) 📉 Signal: MONDAY REJECTION
Trend: Bearish Consolidation. BTC is trading in a "Choppy" range ($68k - $70k) and failing to break the $70,000 supply wall. The "Weekend Gap" at $67,500 is acting as a magnet.$INIT
Entry: $69,100 – $69,450 (Fade the open)
Strategy: Watch for a "Fakeout" pump at the NY Open (9:30 AM EST) that sweeps liquidity before reversing. Enter shorts on the rejection of $69.5k. $DUSK
Target: $67,200 (Gap Fill) | $65,800 (Weekly Support)
Stop Loss: $70,600
#BTC #bitcoin #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours
Trend: Bearish Consolidation. BTC is trading in a "Choppy" range ($68k - $70k) and failing to break the $70,000 supply wall. The "Weekend Gap" at $67,500 is acting as a magnet.$INIT
Entry: $69,100 – $69,450 (Fade the open)
Strategy: Watch for a "Fakeout" pump at the NY Open (9:30 AM EST) that sweeps liquidity before reversing. Enter shorts on the rejection of $69.5k. $DUSK
Target: $67,200 (Gap Fill) | $65,800 (Weekly Support)
Stop Loss: $70,600
#BTC #bitcoin #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours
BTC LIQUIDATION HEATMAP – WHERE THE REAL TRAP IS SET
I’m watching the BTC liquidation heatmap and it’s showing exactly where the pressure is building. This isn’t just a colorful chart. It’s a battlefield map. The colors move from deep purple to bright yellow, and that yellow zone is where massive liquidation clusters are waiting. That’s where leveraged traders are most exposed.
The idea behind the heatmap is simple. It tracks where over-leveraged long and short positions are likely to get forced out. When price moves into those yellow zones, it can trigger a chain reaction. I’m not just looking at candles anymore, I’m watching where the liquidity is stacked. They’re not random levels — they’re magnets.
Right now, you can see strong clusters above and below current price. That means volatility is loading. If BTC pushes into a high-density yellow band, it can accelerate fast as positions unwind.
The purpose of this system is clear: follow the liquidity, not the noise. Smart traders don’t chase moves. They anticipate where the forced moves will happen. And when the heatmap lights up bright yellow, that’s when the real action begins.
#bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquareFamily
I’m watching the BTC liquidation heatmap and it’s showing exactly where the pressure is building. This isn’t just a colorful chart. It’s a battlefield map. The colors move from deep purple to bright yellow, and that yellow zone is where massive liquidation clusters are waiting. That’s where leveraged traders are most exposed.
The idea behind the heatmap is simple. It tracks where over-leveraged long and short positions are likely to get forced out. When price moves into those yellow zones, it can trigger a chain reaction. I’m not just looking at candles anymore, I’m watching where the liquidity is stacked. They’re not random levels — they’re magnets.
Right now, you can see strong clusters above and below current price. That means volatility is loading. If BTC pushes into a high-density yellow band, it can accelerate fast as positions unwind.
The purpose of this system is clear: follow the liquidity, not the noise. Smart traders don’t chase moves. They anticipate where the forced moves will happen. And when the heatmap lights up bright yellow, that’s when the real action begins.
#bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquareFamily
📉 BITCOIN $BTC FACES ITS WORST LOSING STREAK IN 7 YEARS
The sell pressure refuses to ease.
- February alone is down -13%.
- If the month closes red, that’s 5 consecutive losing months — the longest stretch since 2018.
- The total drawdown now hovers near -40% in just ~5 months.
This is shaping up to be one of the steepest, most relentless selloffs in #bitcoin ’s history.
The sell pressure refuses to ease.
- February alone is down -13%.
- If the month closes red, that’s 5 consecutive losing months — the longest stretch since 2018.
- The total drawdown now hovers near -40% in just ~5 months.
This is shaping up to be one of the steepest, most relentless selloffs in #bitcoin ’s history.
CreepTo_Tiger:
When something falls and keeps falling like this, it tends to disappear… unless it’s BTC, then it means it’s just offering deals to explode later 🙌👆
🚨 #bitcoin Wild Ride - Don't Get Trapped!💯
#bitcoin just crashed from 97k straight down to 59.8k and that wasn't some random dip folks. It was a complete reset and now we're chilling around 68k with weak momentum and zero conviction from bulls or bears.
This choppy range is a trap for impatient traders on both sides. If we hold 66-67k support we could bounce back to 72-75k liquidity zone. But if that breaks with heavy volume watch out because 64k comes quick!
Right now don't predict just react and let the level break first before jumping in.✅💯
Entry Price: Wait for clear break above 68k or below 66k ♻️
Take Profit: 72-75k on bounce / 64k on breakdown.🎯
Stop Loss: 65k for longs / 69k for shorts.🩸
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours #PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine
#bitcoin just crashed from 97k straight down to 59.8k and that wasn't some random dip folks. It was a complete reset and now we're chilling around 68k with weak momentum and zero conviction from bulls or bears.
This choppy range is a trap for impatient traders on both sides. If we hold 66-67k support we could bounce back to 72-75k liquidity zone. But if that breaks with heavy volume watch out because 64k comes quick!
Right now don't predict just react and let the level break first before jumping in.✅💯
Entry Price: Wait for clear break above 68k or below 66k ♻️
Take Profit: 72-75k on bounce / 64k on breakdown.🎯
Stop Loss: 65k for longs / 69k for shorts.🩸
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours #PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine
BITCOIN The 1W EMA200 candle closing is now the key..
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week its 2nd straight 1W candle above the 1W EMA200 (red trend-line), which now becomes the center focus of the market for one simple reason. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, it was the 1W EMA200 that supported BTC's 2nd selling wave once it hit it.
As you can see, the 1st selling wave found support on the 1W SMA100 (green trend-line), consolidating for several weeks (closing all weekly candles above it) before crashing into the 2nd wave. So far that held perfectly in the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, it even stayed below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as in 2022.
So now that the 2nd selling wave has found the 1W EMA200's Support, it remains to be seen if it will again consolidate there for a few weeks (on the 0.382 Fib as well this time), like BTC did in 2022, before crashing into the 3rd selling wave below the 1W SMA200 (orange trend-line).
Yet again it appears that the 1W SMA350 (black trend-line) is the level that Bitcoin will be looking for (at least) during this Bear Cycle as well.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals
As you can see, the 1st selling wave found support on the 1W SMA100 (green trend-line), consolidating for several weeks (closing all weekly candles above it) before crashing into the 2nd wave. So far that held perfectly in the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, it even stayed below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as in 2022.
So now that the 2nd selling wave has found the 1W EMA200's Support, it remains to be seen if it will again consolidate there for a few weeks (on the 0.382 Fib as well this time), like BTC did in 2022, before crashing into the 3rd selling wave below the 1W SMA200 (orange trend-line).
Yet again it appears that the 1W SMA350 (black trend-line) is the level that Bitcoin will be looking for (at least) during this Bear Cycle as well.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals
$BTC
🚨 Bitcoin Breakout Loading? 🚨
📊 BTC is compressing inside a tight range
📉 Volatility is decreasing — big move incoming
🐋 Whale activity increasing behind the scenes
Historically, when volatility drops this low…
A strong breakout usually follows.
⚡ The real question is:
Will it break UP or DOWN?
Smart traders are waiting for confirmation — not guessing.
👇 What’s your bias right now? Bullish 🐂 or Bearish 🐻?
Follow for daily crypto insights & high-probability setups.
#CryptoNewss #BTC #analysis #bitcoin #market
🚨 Bitcoin Breakout Loading? 🚨
📊 BTC is compressing inside a tight range
📉 Volatility is decreasing — big move incoming
🐋 Whale activity increasing behind the scenes
Historically, when volatility drops this low…
A strong breakout usually follows.
⚡ The real question is:
Will it break UP or DOWN?
Smart traders are waiting for confirmation — not guessing.
👇 What’s your bias right now? Bullish 🐂 or Bearish 🐻?
Follow for daily crypto insights & high-probability setups.
#CryptoNewss #BTC #analysis #bitcoin #market
Bitcoin's break below $60,000 on February 6 triggered one of the most concentrated exchange inflow events in recent history. CryptoQuant data shows whale deposits to Binance alone spiked to roughly 12,000 $BTC that day, compared to a monthly average of around 1,000 $BTC . That's not gradual de-risking — that's a rush for the exit.
But here's where it gets interesting: the inflows cooled almost as quickly as they surged. Within days, the flow patterns normalized, and on-chain data revealed that 66,940 $BTC moved into accumulation addresses on February 6 — the largest single-day whale accumulation since 2022. So while some holders were dumping into exchanges, others were absorbing supply and self-custodying.
The Fear & Greed Index hit 5 on that same day, lower than the FTX collapse reading of 6. U.S. spot ETFs recorded $371 million in inflows even as sentiment cratered. The contrast between exchange selling and accumulation wallet inflows suggests two different cohorts responding to the same price action in opposite ways.
Whether this marks exhaustion or just a pause before another leg down depends on whether those accumulation wallets stay dormant or start redistributing. For now, the flow data shows the initial panic subsided faster than the price did.
#bitcoin #crypto #BTC #Onchain #whales
But here's where it gets interesting: the inflows cooled almost as quickly as they surged. Within days, the flow patterns normalized, and on-chain data revealed that 66,940 $BTC moved into accumulation addresses on February 6 — the largest single-day whale accumulation since 2022. So while some holders were dumping into exchanges, others were absorbing supply and self-custodying.
The Fear & Greed Index hit 5 on that same day, lower than the FTX collapse reading of 6. U.S. spot ETFs recorded $371 million in inflows even as sentiment cratered. The contrast between exchange selling and accumulation wallet inflows suggests two different cohorts responding to the same price action in opposite ways.
Whether this marks exhaustion or just a pause before another leg down depends on whether those accumulation wallets stay dormant or start redistributing. For now, the flow data shows the initial panic subsided faster than the price did.
#bitcoin #crypto #BTC #Onchain #whales
$BTC about to reach the last froentier.
Bitcoin bottom on the making
#TradeCryptosOnX #CPIWatch #bitcoin
Bitcoin bottom on the making
#TradeCryptosOnX #CPIWatch #bitcoin
🚨 #bitcoin LIQUIDATION IMBALANCE FAVORS UPSIDE MOVE
A 10% rally in $BTC would trigger roughly $4.34BILLION in short liquidations, against about $2.35BILLION in long liquidations on a 10% decline.
Bearish positioning appears more crowded and over-leveraged, increasing the risk of an amplified upside squeeze if momentum turns.
A 10% rally in $BTC would trigger roughly $4.34BILLION in short liquidations, against about $2.35BILLION in long liquidations on a 10% decline.
Bearish positioning appears more crowded and over-leveraged, increasing the risk of an amplified upside squeeze if momentum turns.
Lumolla:
Yeah but it never works as expected, maybe because dumping is easier than pumping, but what can i know
HYPERUNIT WHALE JUST SOLD HALF A BILLION OF $ETH
The Hyperunit Whale appears to be a large #bitcoin holder, likely Chinese, whose wallets accumulated 100K+ BTC during early 2018 (then worth ~$650M).
For years, his strategy was simple: accumulate BTC and hold.
Over 90% of those coins remained untouched for roughly seven years.
At the peak of his on-chain holdings, the Hyperunit whale controlled $11.14B worth of $BTC .
In August 2025, roughly 39,738 BTC ($4.49B at time of transfer) were sent to Hyperunit, apparently to rotate into ETH.
The whale accumulated 886,371 ETH worth over $4 Billion at the time.
Since rotating heavily into ETH, the whale is currently estimated to be:
~$3.7B down on leveraged ETH exposure + spot BTC/ETH holdings
~$1.2B down on staked ETH
Across all positions, the Hyperunit Whale is estimated to be down ~$5B from peak total PnL.
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI
The Hyperunit Whale appears to be a large #bitcoin holder, likely Chinese, whose wallets accumulated 100K+ BTC during early 2018 (then worth ~$650M).
For years, his strategy was simple: accumulate BTC and hold.
Over 90% of those coins remained untouched for roughly seven years.
At the peak of his on-chain holdings, the Hyperunit whale controlled $11.14B worth of $BTC .
In August 2025, roughly 39,738 BTC ($4.49B at time of transfer) were sent to Hyperunit, apparently to rotate into ETH.
The whale accumulated 886,371 ETH worth over $4 Billion at the time.
Since rotating heavily into ETH, the whale is currently estimated to be:
~$3.7B down on leveraged ETH exposure + spot BTC/ETH holdings
~$1.2B down on staked ETH
Across all positions, the Hyperunit Whale is estimated to be down ~$5B from peak total PnL.
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI
行情监控:
This wave has made a lot of money, get on board quickly!
The Bottom Isn't Here Yet. Here's Why Bitcoin Needs 5-9 More Months.
Question: Is #bitcoin bottoming at $68K?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
salty rivers:
indeed well said , deep is the best buy for long term holders
#BlackRock 's Bitcoin Leverage Warning
Primary Statement
Date: February 13, 2026 (Thursday) - $BTC Investor Week conference in New York
Speaker: Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets .
Published: February 15, 2026 (BlackRock)
Core Warning
#Mitchnick warned that heavy use of leverage in #bitcoin derivatives is undermining the cryptocurrency's appeal as a stable institutional portfolio hedge$. He stated that bitcoin's trading increasingly resembles a "levered NASDAQ," raising the bar for conservative investors to adopt it.
Specific Volatility Example
Mitchnick cited October 10th when a minor tariff-related event caused Bitcoin to drop 20% due to cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.
#ETF vs Derivatives Distinction
During the tumultuous week, only 0.2% of IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) was redeemed (BlackRock)
Mitchnick pointed to perpetual futures platforms as the main volatility source, where many billions were liquidated on leveraged platforms.
Recent Market Context (February 2026)
On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell to nearly $60,000, marking a 50% drop since October 2025
#IBIT recorded trading volume of $10 billion, its highest since launch.
Primary Statement
Date: February 13, 2026 (Thursday) - $BTC Investor Week conference in New York
Speaker: Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets .
Published: February 15, 2026 (BlackRock)
Core Warning
#Mitchnick warned that heavy use of leverage in #bitcoin derivatives is undermining the cryptocurrency's appeal as a stable institutional portfolio hedge$. He stated that bitcoin's trading increasingly resembles a "levered NASDAQ," raising the bar for conservative investors to adopt it.
Specific Volatility Example
Mitchnick cited October 10th when a minor tariff-related event caused Bitcoin to drop 20% due to cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.
#ETF vs Derivatives Distinction
During the tumultuous week, only 0.2% of IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) was redeemed (BlackRock)
Mitchnick pointed to perpetual futures platforms as the main volatility source, where many billions were liquidated on leveraged platforms.
Recent Market Context (February 2026)
On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell to nearly $60,000, marking a 50% drop since October 2025
#IBIT recorded trading volume of $10 billion, its highest since launch.
$BTC ranging clean between $68K – $70K all week.
When price respects a box like this, scalps make sense 👀
• Long near the mid-range support
• Short as it pushes into the $70K upper boundary
• DCA carefully if it sweeps toward $68K
Right now #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again — still inside the range, no real breakout yet.
Until we get a clean break and close outside $68K–$70K, treat it as a range.
Quick entries. Tight stops. Don’t overstay.
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours #MarketRebound #bitcoin
When price respects a box like this, scalps make sense 👀
• Long near the mid-range support
• Short as it pushes into the $70K upper boundary
• DCA carefully if it sweeps toward $68K
Right now #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again — still inside the range, no real breakout yet.
Until we get a clean break and close outside $68K–$70K, treat it as a range.
Quick entries. Tight stops. Don’t overstay.
#OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #VVVSurged55.1%in24Hours #MarketRebound #bitcoin
📊🚀 Bitcoin Price History
2009: Bitcoin started at $0
2013: Crossed $1,000
2017: Hit $20,000
2021: Reached $69,000
2025: New ATH above $100k+
From zero to a global asset — Bitcoin proved that patience pays in crypto. 💰
Those who held long term made history.
Are you ready for the next chapter of BTC? 👀
#bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquareTalks #TradeCryptosOnX #CryptoMarketAlert
2009: Bitcoin started at $0
2013: Crossed $1,000
2017: Hit $20,000
2021: Reached $69,000
2025: New ATH above $100k+
From zero to a global asset — Bitcoin proved that patience pays in crypto. 💰
Those who held long term made history.
Are you ready for the next chapter of BTC? 👀
#bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquareTalks #TradeCryptosOnX #CryptoMarketAlert
BNS995:
btc
Bitcoin Could Face a Deep Correction — Here’s Why
I’ve been watching the market closely, and recent analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone caught my attention. He warned that Bitcoin could revisit the $10K zone if the current risk-asset selloff continues. To me, this isn’t just about crypto — it feels like a bigger macro shift happening across financial markets.
What I see right now is a broad unwind: stocks showing weakness, volatility rising, and liquidity conditions tightening. When money becomes cautious, high-risk assets usually get hit first — and crypto is always part of that cycle. This explains why the market feels heavy even when there isn’t direct negative crypto news.
Still, I don’t take this as fear — I see it as a reminder. Markets move in cycles, and Bitcoin has survived many extreme predictions before. For me, the focus is simple: stay patient, manage risk, and watch the macro signals instead of reacting emotionally. #bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNewss #Bitcoin❗ #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again $BTC
I’ve been watching the market closely, and recent analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone caught my attention. He warned that Bitcoin could revisit the $10K zone if the current risk-asset selloff continues. To me, this isn’t just about crypto — it feels like a bigger macro shift happening across financial markets.
What I see right now is a broad unwind: stocks showing weakness, volatility rising, and liquidity conditions tightening. When money becomes cautious, high-risk assets usually get hit first — and crypto is always part of that cycle. This explains why the market feels heavy even when there isn’t direct negative crypto news.
Still, I don’t take this as fear — I see it as a reminder. Markets move in cycles, and Bitcoin has survived many extreme predictions before. For me, the focus is simple: stay patient, manage risk, and watch the macro signals instead of reacting emotionally. #bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNewss #Bitcoin❗ #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again $BTC
365D Trade PNL
-$2,501.41
-4.07%
ADY- PYx7:
the right attitude.👍💪
$BTC Shows Signs of Weakening Bearish Pressure — Is a Reversal on the Horizon?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $68,385, after pulling back from a recent daily high near $70,897. In just 24 hours, the price fluctuated between $68,095 and $70,897, highlighting the kind of volatility that continues to define the crypto market.
Recent Performance Snapshot
1-hour change: -0.4%
24-hour change: -2.7%
7-day change: -3.9%
30-day change: -28.1%
While short-term declines remain visible, the broader picture suggests something more nuanced: bearish momentum may be starting to lose strength.
Key Support Levels in Focus
Despite the recent retracement, Bitcoin is still holding above the critical $68,000 support level. This zone is closely watched by traders, as maintaining support here could stabilize price action and potentially pave the way for a rebound.
If Bitcoin fails to hold above $68K, the next major support level appears near $65,000 — a psychological and technical level that could attract buying interest.
What This Means for Traders
The recent volatility signals ongoing uncertainty, but weakening bearish pressure could indicate that sellers are losing control. If buying momentum increases near current support levels, Bitcoin could attempt another push toward recent highs.
However, caution remains essential. A confirmed break below $68K could trigger further downside before any sustained recovery takes shape.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture. While recent declines reflect short-term weakness, holding key support levels may open the door to renewed upward momentum. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this is simply a pause in the downtrend — or the early signs of a meaningful reversal.
#BTC #bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $68,385, after pulling back from a recent daily high near $70,897. In just 24 hours, the price fluctuated between $68,095 and $70,897, highlighting the kind of volatility that continues to define the crypto market.
Recent Performance Snapshot
1-hour change: -0.4%
24-hour change: -2.7%
7-day change: -3.9%
30-day change: -28.1%
While short-term declines remain visible, the broader picture suggests something more nuanced: bearish momentum may be starting to lose strength.
Key Support Levels in Focus
Despite the recent retracement, Bitcoin is still holding above the critical $68,000 support level. This zone is closely watched by traders, as maintaining support here could stabilize price action and potentially pave the way for a rebound.
If Bitcoin fails to hold above $68K, the next major support level appears near $65,000 — a psychological and technical level that could attract buying interest.
What This Means for Traders
The recent volatility signals ongoing uncertainty, but weakening bearish pressure could indicate that sellers are losing control. If buying momentum increases near current support levels, Bitcoin could attempt another push toward recent highs.
However, caution remains essential. A confirmed break below $68K could trigger further downside before any sustained recovery takes shape.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture. While recent declines reflect short-term weakness, holding key support levels may open the door to renewed upward momentum. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this is simply a pause in the downtrend — or the early signs of a meaningful reversal.
#BTC #bitcoin
🤔🤔 When the Crypto Market Might Really Bottom.
$BTC
Many think #Bitcoin already hit its bottom at $60K. That’s probably just a temporary low, not the real bottom.
Why the real bottom hasn’t come yet:
1. Liquidity: Money is still leaving the system. Until U.S. liquidity improves, markets can’t fully recover.
2. Mayer Multiple: Shows Bitcoin is oversold but not at historic bottom levels.
3. Long-Term Holder Cost: Average long-term buy price is around $41K — far below current levels.
4. Mining Costs: Bear market floor is $45K–$46K after usual drops.
5. Institutional Demand: Big players defend $45K–$50K range.
Cycle is unusual: #bitcoin peaked early and the market is moving ahead of expectations, so the bottom could come sooner — likely August to September.
Psychology: When BTC hits $45K–$48K, people panic and predict much lower prices. Markets often trap both sides.
Bottom line: The $60k low was likely temporary. The real cycle bottom is probably below $50k, forming late summer to early fall, before the next major growth phase.
#MarketRebound #BTC100kNext? #CryptoNews
$BTC
Many think #Bitcoin already hit its bottom at $60K. That’s probably just a temporary low, not the real bottom.
Why the real bottom hasn’t come yet:
1. Liquidity: Money is still leaving the system. Until U.S. liquidity improves, markets can’t fully recover.
2. Mayer Multiple: Shows Bitcoin is oversold but not at historic bottom levels.
3. Long-Term Holder Cost: Average long-term buy price is around $41K — far below current levels.
4. Mining Costs: Bear market floor is $45K–$46K after usual drops.
5. Institutional Demand: Big players defend $45K–$50K range.
Cycle is unusual: #bitcoin peaked early and the market is moving ahead of expectations, so the bottom could come sooner — likely August to September.
Psychology: When BTC hits $45K–$48K, people panic and predict much lower prices. Markets often trap both sides.
Bottom line: The $60k low was likely temporary. The real cycle bottom is probably below $50k, forming late summer to early fall, before the next major growth phase.
#MarketRebound #BTC100kNext? #CryptoNews
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
$BTC had a rejection wick, but price eventually came lower and can give another shot down to the low made. Price again had a rejection wick from the support area and looks like again a indecision candle closing will occur. Let wait for other factor to combine and let market clear what going to be next.
#bitcoin #TradingSignals
$BTC had a rejection wick, but price eventually came lower and can give another shot down to the low made. Price again had a rejection wick from the support area and looks like again a indecision candle closing will occur. Let wait for other factor to combine and let market clear what going to be next.
#bitcoin #TradingSignals
Danilo Vence:
Do you know liquidator algorithm?
$BTC 4H PRICE ACTION — Range Watch (~$68.4K)
Bitcoin is trading around $68,400 on the 4-hour timeframe.
• Price remains inside a clear range
• Support zone: ~$67,900–$68,000
• Resistance zone: ~$69,100–$69,300
• Volume still muted — indecision phase
This kind of range compression can lead to a quick move once a level breaks.
What I’m watching next:
• If BTC breaks above $69,300 → bullish momentum could pick up
• If BTC drops below $67,900 → downside pressure can accelerate
No chasing — wait for a confirmed 4-hour candle close at either side before acting.
#bitcoin #cryptotrading #4HPriceAction #RiskManaged #BinanceSquare
Bitcoin is trading around $68,400 on the 4-hour timeframe.
• Price remains inside a clear range
• Support zone: ~$67,900–$68,000
• Resistance zone: ~$69,100–$69,300
• Volume still muted — indecision phase
This kind of range compression can lead to a quick move once a level breaks.
What I’m watching next:
• If BTC breaks above $69,300 → bullish momentum could pick up
• If BTC drops below $67,900 → downside pressure can accelerate
No chasing — wait for a confirmed 4-hour candle close at either side before acting.
#bitcoin #cryptotrading #4HPriceAction #RiskManaged #BinanceSquare
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