Based on technical analysis, fundamental factors, and market context, here is the justification for opening a long position in XMR.
📌 Current situation
· XMR price: $270 (correction -20.31% over the month, but +57.93% over the year).
· Key levels:
· Support: $254.95 (local minimum), $183 (strategy cancellation level).
· Resistance: $274.88 (24H high), $420–$520 (target zones).
· Market data:
· Market capitalization: $4.99 billion (37th place in ranking).
· Trading volume: $96 million (+6.69% over 24h) — moderate interest.
🔍 Fundamental drivers
1. Resilience to delisting:
· February delisting from major exchanges did not lead to a collapse, but strengthened the XMR community. The price increased by +57.93% over the year.
2. Mining pool attack:
· The news about the Qubic pool (40% of the hash rate) caused panic, but most of the correction has already passed. This is typical 'negativity at the bottom'.
3. Technological advantages:
· Ring signatures, hidden addresses, and RingCT provide privacy — a key advantage over BTC/ETH.
4. Market demand:
· Increasing interest in private coins against the backdrop of heightened regulatory pressure on transparent blockchains.
📊 Technical analysis
1. Chart and patterns
· Correction completed: Price is testing the $254–$270 zone, where historically a bottom forms.
· RSI Divergence: On the daily timeframe, RSI shows oversold conditions (value ~30), signaling a reversal.
· Volume Profile: Sales volumes are drying up — large players are accumulating positions.
2. Target levels
· Short-term target ($420): Breaking $300 will pave the way to $420 (a +55% increase from the current price).
· Medium-term target ($520): Testing the historical maximum ($542) in a positive market context.
3. Stop-loss
· $183: Critical level. A break below this zone invalidates the bullish scenario.
⚡ Trading strategy
Action Level Justification
Long entry $254–$270 Accumulation at the bottom of the correction.
Stop-loss $183 Below key support.
Take-profit 1 $420 Resistance zone (Fibo 1.618).
Take-profit 2 $520 Historical maximum.
⚠️ Risks
1. Regulatory pressure: The SEC may tighten rules for private coins.
2. Centralization of mining: The Qubic pool controls 40% of the hash rate — a threat to decentralization.
3. Overall market volatility: A drop in BTC below $110K will impact altcoins.
💡 Conclusion
· Buy signal: The current zone $254–$270 is optimal for entry. Negative news is already priced in.
· Targets: $420 (by the end of 2025), $520 (in 2026).
· Conditions for success: Holding $183 and increasing interest in private assets.
Rule: Risk no more than 5% of capital. Monitor news about mining and regulation.
