This afternoon, many partners and I privately discussed this topic: when should we systematically take profits in this large cycle? The market has developed to what extent, and everyone with chips has deep experiences; this is a 'big bull market' where even Iron Man would have to scrape off a layer of iron skin.
Selling is a profound art; in a small cycle, if you miss the bottom, you often just miss it. After lamenting that, it usually ends there. But if you buy at a relatively appropriate position, hesitation and indecisiveness at the selling point can lead to one roller coaster after another, even directly missing the cycle high, resulting in endless regret during the process of facing new lows.
The cryptocurrency market has the biggest bug compared to other financial markets, which is that there are almost no historical market bases to draw from for each cycle. This leads to the need for continuous learning about new developments in the market, such as how the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic policies affect cryptocurrency market cycles, the actual correlation between ETF fund trading and spot fund inflows/outflows, and the dynamic balance mechanism of institutional reserves and market liquidity, etc.
Starting from the first tenfold plan in 2024, anyone who has been following my uncle's friend will know that I have only had two main selling directions from then until now: doubling the investment in altcoins and trend stop-loss for altcoins, while my mainstream positions have seen almost no action. The purpose of doubling investment is to ensure the safety of the principal while using enough zero-cost chips to strive for the potential gains in this unknown bull market, and the trend stop-loss for altcoins is purely a trading strategy; if the direction is wrong, I will resolutely take the loss.
For managing large positions in mainstream assets (Bitcoin and Ethereum), my entry and exit logic is the simplest low-buy high-sell strategy in cyclical trading. For example, Bitcoin: after the last bull market cycle peaked and reversed, I started building positions at 45,000 points, gradually entering at the low point of 16,000 points over a year and a half, buying when no one was paying attention, until the beginning of last month when I publicly reduced my position for the first time at 105,000 points and placed sell orders at 140,000 points and higher (at that time, the Federal Reserve had lowered interest rates three times consecutively below the mid-term rate low). With a time cost of three years, an average price of over 20,000 could sell for an average of over 120,000, which I consider to be worthwhile.
My logic comes from the cyclical performance of traditional macroeconomics, where all risk assets are in a downward trend during the market contraction phase; we do not know where the lowest point of this phase is, which corresponds to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle. The preparatory phase for monetary easing to the phase of preventing excessive liquidity often corresponds to the stage where assets rise. During the preparatory speculative phase, the market collectively rises, and when expectations materialize, risk capital accelerates its rise, and smart money begins to flee, preparing for a preemptive response to the eventual easing phase.
If you don't constantly stare at the K-line market that is as distressing as an ICU patient's ECG, and instead broaden your time frame, my logic applies to all market players whose expectations do not far exceed their understanding.
Let's briefly discuss the market fundamentals. Here, we need to determine the core tone of the market: Bitcoin is currently basically confirming a daily double top pattern. The emergence of this signal does not mean that the market has ended, but rather indicates that current market funds are no longer focusing on Bitcoin. The market will not just stop but will oscillate at high levels before the big cycle is completely over, waiting for a new round of monetary easing stimulation to break through the constraints of the double top and welcome the next new high.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is completely different; it recently retraced from a high of 4788 points to a low of 4193 points today, but it still has not broken below the daily breakout trend support established since the end of June this year, nor has it even retested the high three-top support platform established since the beginning of this month. Ethereum's performance reflects the pressure of large profit-taking sell-offs, which can be seen as a short-term breather after a rapid rise.
Altcoins have completely lost liquidity; the fundamentals of the altcoin market are just like those of the first half of this year, last year, or even the year before, with no essential differences. Without hope, there can be no disappointment; monetary easing will definitely come, we just don't know exactly when or in what form! But my uncle knows that if monetary easing truly comes, a significant number of quality projects will still have their moment of brilliance.
ETF data showed that both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced outflows at the level of over 100 million yesterday. This data is positively correlated with the signals released during the economic meetings this Thursday and Friday. The general negative sentiment is due to the extremely bearish PPI data from earlier. Until the news is finalized, it might be wise to reduce operations and stay away from the market. We all know that what is meant to come will eventually come; why not relax and wait for the moment it truly arrives?
This tug-of-war in the crypto market will eventually have a winner. With a good mindset and executable strategies, plus daily intrinsic market cultivation, we can always sit at the table and share a piece of the pie.
BTC: Bitcoin has a daily double top, and it is fundamentally confirmed that there is immense bullish pressure in the short to medium term. It is very important to wait for macro favorable factors to unleash new momentum. Looking at the five-day line, there is also a market bottoming trend after the daily trend breakout, indicating that it is currently in a large cycle bottoming pattern, combining positive factors to create a large oscillation pattern; there is no significant issue with mid to long-term holdings. Currently, the low point for Bitcoin is at 116,000 points, which is the trend bottom position. If the risk comes, it must break below this position; right now, the support role still seems to be present.
ETH: Ethereum has just experienced a short-term new low around 4190 points today, which is close to the starting point of this round of high-level breakout. From the chip structure perspective, it's somewhat difficult for this position to fall through directly and doesn't hold much significance. The previous breakout saw Ethereum's price in the 3900-4100 point range top undergo six months of brewing before finally breaking through. The basic logic of the breakout trend is to form the bottom range for the next high point based on this, so we can regard the previous strong resistance area as the bottom support platform for the next breakout. If not for an economic recession, the probability of a direct hard drop remains low. I mentioned my thoughts in the internal group; the 4100 point position is currently not able to go lower logically, but if it truly drops, I plan to place the positions I failed to buy at 3200 points at this level.
Altcoin market: OKB stands out, LINK and DOGE are slightly acceptable, and in the past few days, pay attention to ARB at the low point, as there are uncertain positive factors (risk is 50-50).
Other issues can be discussed in the comments section.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 53 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
