XRP is consolidating around 3.08, resembling "the calm before the storm"; a massive POC looms above 3.26, while the vacuum zone below 2.73–2.90 forms a short trap, with short-term bulls quietly gathering.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchor: POC = 3.268, with 643M transactions in the past two weeks at this level, forming a fortress that bulls must reclaim.
2. High Volume Buffer: HVN1 = 3.201–3.206, HVN2 = 3.258–3.263, prices falling here are likely to trigger buy orders.
3. Low Volume Gap: LVN main band 2.730–2.850, with a trading volume of less than 150 million; breaking through often leads to a "sharp drop" or "V reversal."
4. 70% Trading Area: 2.99–3.31, current price is near the lower edge, RSI 45 + Bollinger Band 51% indicates neither overbought nor oversold, belonging to the "lower edge buy zone."
Momentum Verification
• The Up Volume in the 3.26–3.28 range is 57%, slightly favoring bulls;
• The Down Volume in the 3.00–3.05 range is 58%, indicating continued selling pressure in the short term;
• The trading volume in the last 4 hours is down 66% compared to the previous period, indicating a period of consolidation while waiting for directional choice.
Auxiliary Indicators
• MA200 = 3.217, deviating -4% indicates mild overselling;
• Contract positions increased by 2.07% in 24h, but the long-short ratio dropped from 2.39 to 1.90, with bulls reducing positions faster, caution against false shorts;
• The buy/sell total volume ratio on the order book is 1.65, yet there are 620,000 more near-term sell orders, indicating continued demand for short-term wash trading.
Market Cycle
The medium- to long-term weekly line is still in the bull market pullback phase; after three consecutive daily declines with reduced volume, it is seen as a secondary adjustment in the medium-term upward trend, with a fluctuation range of 2.73–3.35.
Trading Strategy (Short-term 15m–1h)
• Aggressive: Enter long if a long lower shadow or increased bullish volume appears at the upper level of LVN 2.850–2.860, stop loss at 2.825 (-1ATR), target 3.05/3.20, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.
• Moderate: Wait for a breakout with volume and stabilize above 3.05 (VAH), follow up if it pulls back to 3.03 without breaking, stop loss at 2.99, target 3.20–3.26, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.2.
• Conservative: If volume breaks below 2.825, reverse and go short, stop loss at 2.855, target 2.730, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.6.
Risk Warning: If the 1h close falls below 2.80 and the contract OI continues to increase, it is seen as a new short initiation; close long positions immediately.
LP Market Making Suggestions
Currently suitable for narrow range LP in the 2.99–3.26 range:
• The lower edge of 2.99 is the bottom of the 70% trading area + dense buy orders;
• The upper edge of 3.26 is heavy pressure at POC, with a high probability of price swings;
• Funding rates are close to 0, with controllable funding costs, expected annualized fee income of 20–30%, and a dynamic stop loss of 1.5ATR to guard against extreme breakouts.
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$XRP
