Price is firmly pinned by the 'value anchor' 118145, yet it hovers at the edge of the lower Bollinger band; contract bulls have continuously reduced positions by 20k for 3 days, while spot quietly absorbs 1.67k——a 'low-volume false drop' is unfolding.

[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value anchoring zone: POC＝118145 (64,000 BTC traded), with 58% selling pressure above and 42% buying pressure below, forming a 'neutral bearish' balance.
2. High trading volume buffer zone:
• HVN-1＝117657~117779（50,000 BTC）——Daily first rebound level;
• HVN-2＝118632~118755（63,000 BTC）——If the volume breaks out, it will quickly test 119242.
3. Low trading volume gap:
• LVN-1＝116800~117000（2,000 BTC）——Bear trap zone, breaking below leads to 116429 lower boundary.
• LVN-2＝122532~122654（5,800 BTC）——Bull target vacuum zone, after breaking through, 2×ATR points directly to 123873.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: 114001~121801; current price 117567 is located at the middle axis of this zone, neither overbought nor oversold, but close to the lower boundary, short-term bias is bearish.

[Momentum Verification]
• POC area Up/Down＝42:58, bears dominate;
• Recently, in the last hour, Up Volume near LVN-1 has risen to 63%, indicating a potential 'false breakout' signal;
• Contract OI decreased by 3.16% in 24 hours, diverging from the price -0.68%, suggesting the main force is locking in shorts to lure in longs.

[Cycle Judgment]
In the medium term, it is still in a 'high-level oscillation' phase; in the short term (1-3 days), if it holds above 117000, it is considered a 'bull market continuation pullback', if it fails, it will shift to a 'secondary correction'.

[Trading Strategy]
1. Short-term pullback to buy:
• Entry: 117000~117100 (upper edge of LVN-1, bullish candle appears on 15m + Up > 60%)
• Stop Loss: 116400 (recent HVN-1 outer -0.5×ATR ≈ 600)
• Target: 118145 (POC) and 118755 (HVN-2), reduce positions in batches
• Risk-reward ratio: (118145-117050)/(117050-116400)=1095/650≈1.68

2. Breakout to sell:
• Entry: effective drop below 116400 and Down Volume > 1.5×average
• Stop Loss: 116950 (retesting HVN-1)
• Target: 115342 (next HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1

[Risk Control Tips]
• Strategy invalidation: 117000 being broken through by a solid bearish candle with volume or RSI dropping below 30 with no rebound.
• Event risk: macro data, US stocks opening gap.
• Capital management: single transaction risk ≤ 1% of account, leverage ≤ 3 times.

[LP Market Making Suggestions]
Place dual currency market making in the range of 117000~118800:
• The lower limit is close to LVN-1 and the lower Bollinger band, taking panic sell orders;
• The upper limit is near POC and HVN-2, taking short-term chasing orders;
• Capital ratio 3:7, reserving 20% to deal with rapid rises after breaking 122532.

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