
SOL was violently washed out by bears -3% in 24h, but accurately pulled back to 70% trading volume VAL, the lower Bollinger Band and cost basis align, short-term funds are quietly 'cooking rice' in the 184–186 range, waiting for directional choice.
Key interval structure and trading volume distribution
1. Value anchoring zone: POC 179.5 is the most concentrated trading area in 2 weeks, with 886 million SOL traded in a range of ±0.7%, forming a short-term value center.
2. High trading volume zone (HVN):
• 178.0–179.1: 8.85 million SOL, highly concentrated long-short turnover, will turn into the first resistance after breaking down.
• 191.8–193.2: 7.96–8.52 million SOL, if it rebounds to this, it is likely to encounter selling pressure.
3. Low trading volume gap (LVN):
• 155.6–160.7: five consecutive LVNs, trading less than 2 million SOL, once broken will quickly slide to 148.
• 206.3–210.2: upper vacuum zone, breaking through 193 with volume can directly rush to 205.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: 167.2–202.6, the current price 186.85 is at the 34% quantile of the range, close to the lower bound, short-term oversold.
5. Momentum verification:
• POC zone Up/Down 46%/54%, slightly bearish dominance;
• Up Volume in the 186–187 area rose to 58%, indicating signs of buying pressure returning.
6. Auxiliary indicators:
• MA200 185.68, price only deviated +0.6%, support is effective;
• Bollinger Band 1h lower bound 179.9, upper bound 199.8, band width narrowing, indicating a reversal window within 12h;
• Contract positions decreased by 2.39% in 24h, shorts reduced by -12.99%, leverage washout is nearly complete.
Market cycle
Mid-term still in the 'high-level volatility' phase: 2-week range 148–220, has not broken the previous high; short-term at the end of 'panic pullback', if it holds above 184–186, it will return to the upper volatility range.
Trading strategy
• Conservative bullish: Buy lightly on pullback at 184.5 (LVN upper edge & VAL inner side), stop loss at 182.8 (HVN 178.0 outer side + 0.5×ATR≈1.7), target 191.8 (recent HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.3:1.
• Aggressive bullish: Current price 186.8 can take 30% position for testing, stop loss same as above.
• Conservative bearish: If 1h close drops below 182.8 and Down Volume > 60%, rebound at 184.5 with a light short position, stop loss 186.3, target 179.5 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8:1.
Risk warning: Break below 179.5 with volume confirmation, strategy invalid; macro risks or BTC anomalies may amplify volatility.
LP market-making suggestion
Suggest placing orders in the 184.5–191.8 range for LP:
• Place buy orders at 184.5–186.5, utilizing resonance between VAL and MA200;
• Place sell orders at 191.0–191.8, corresponding to the upper HVN and Bollinger upper band dual resistance;
• The range trading proportion reaches 18%, slippage is controllable, capital efficiency is better than wide ranges.
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