DOGE is like a small boat caught between two giant waves—above, 0.236 HVN is like an iron wall, below, 0.221 HVN is like a sponge, with spot quietly accumulating, while contracts are secretly reducing positions, a 'low-volume tug-of-war' could turn into a 'high-volume plunge' or 'sudden rise' at any time.

[Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution]
Value anchoring zone: POC 0.2233 is the most crowded battlefield in the past two weeks, with 5.2 billion DOGE settled within 0.002 dollars up and down; as long as the price returns here, both longs and shorts will regroup.
High volume buffer zone:
0.2215–0.2251 has formed a 'thick wall' with five consecutive HVNs; only a short-term drop below 0.221 will open up downward space.
0.236–0.239 is the second HVN cluster above, and a breakthrough and stabilization are required to see 0.25+.
Low volume gap:
0.188–0.193 and 0.249–0.255 are typical LVNs; once the price enters, it will move in a 'sliding track' manner, suitable for breakout chasing or pullback joining.
70% trading volume coverage zone: 0.2027–0.2448, current price 0.2304 is just at the midpoint of the range, neither overbought nor oversold, a direction selection window.
Momentum verification:
POC area Down Vol accounts for 59%, selling pressure slightly dominates; Up Vol near 0.236 HVN only accounts for 46%, bulls have yet to gather.
Contract holdings have decreased by 1.23% in the last 4 hours, and the probability of a 'false breakout' increases with reduced volume.

[Market Cycle]
In the stage of 'secondary rebound in a downward trend': The weekly chart is still in the range of 0.20–0.28, the daily chart rebound touches the mid-line of the box, and contract funds have net outflows for two consecutive weeks, indicating a 'weak rebound' rather than a reversal.

[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive short position:
Entry 0.231–0.233 (near the upper Bollinger band & LVN upper edge)
Stop loss 0.2368 (above HVN +0.5×ATR≈0.004)
Target 0.223 (POC pullback)
Risk-reward ratio ≈ (0.231→0.223)/(0.2368-0.231) ≈ 1.38

Conservative long position:
Wait for a pullback to 0.221–0.222 (HVN lower edge + LVN overlap)
Stop loss 0.2185 (below the next low HVN)
Target 0.228 (upper HVN)
Risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1

Risk Warning: If the 1h closing volume breaks above 0.2368 or drops below 0.218, the strategy is immediately invalid; macro risks (BTC plunge, sudden regulation) may also amplify volatility.

[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to place bilateral liquidity in the range of 0.221–0.236, with a range width of ≈6.5%, covering 70% of trading volume; Reason:
1. HVN is dense within the range, trading is active, and transaction fee income is high;
2. If the price breaks through either side of the range, orders can be quickly canceled to avoid impermanent loss;
3. Funding rates are close to 0, balancing long and short positions, reducing directional risk.

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