NOT has fallen nearly 6% in 24 hours, the price has pierced the lower Bollinger Band and deviated from MA200 by over 5%, yet a buy wall has formed around 0.00205 with double the orders; contract OI has increased by 8.7% but is imbalanced turning towards long, with a net inflow of 1.5 billion units in spot for 5 consecutive days, capital is quietly "picking up the corpses"—a short-term value return to POC 0.002094 may be imminent.
【Key Interval Structure and Trading Volume Distribution】
1. Value Anchoring Area (POC): 0.002094, maximum transaction of 91.11 million USDT in 2 weeks, with 2 million USDT above and below as a densely traded zone, a "central" that must be contended for by shorts and longs in the short term.
2. High Trading Volume Area (HVN):
• 0.00199-0.00202: Buyers accumulated 74.29 million - 80.48 million USDT, forming the first buffer;
• 0.00206-0.00208: Sellers are dominant but buying volume still accounts for 48%, forming the second pullback area.
3. Low Trading Volume Gap (LVN):
• 0.001836-0.001888: Trading volume dropped sharply to 27.7 million - 8.54 million USDT, once it breaks below, it will quickly slide to the annual low of 0.00174;
• 0.00234-0.00236: Upper vacuum zone, breaking through can reach the previous high of 0.00248 directly.
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Area: 0.001991-0.002183, current price 0.002056 is at the lower bound, technically at the "oversold edge."
Momentum Validation: Up Volume near POC is 52.3%, slightly bullish; Up Volume below LVN is 100%, but the volume is small, considered a false short; Up Volume around 0.00206 is 48%, with longs and shorts in a deadlock.
【Market Cycle】
End of the bear market, oscillating to find the bottom: monthly drop of 82%, weekly sideways for 5 weeks; OI has increased for 7 consecutive days + funding rate turns positive, indicating short covering, entering a "oversold rebound window" in the short term.
【Trading Strategy】
• Aggressive: Long at the current price of 0.002056±0.000005, stop-loss at 0.001980 (outside lower HVN -0.5ATR), target 0.002094 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈3.8.
• Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 0.00199-0.00200 and 15m Up Volume >60% before re-entering, stop-loss at 0.001955, target 0.002083 (upper HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈2.2.
• Cautious: Enter long after breaking 0.002183 (upper bound of 70% range) with volume (≥1.5 times average), stop-loss at 0.002140, target 0.002240 (upper LVN), risk-reward ratio ≈2.1.
Risk Control: If the 1h close falls below 0.00195 or OI suddenly drops >3%, consider it a failure of the bulls, and stop-loss immediately.
【LP Market Making Suggestions】
It is recommended to place dual-sided LP orders in the range of 0.00199-0.00218: the lower bound corresponds to strong support at HVN, the upper bound is the peak of the 70% trading area, volatility is moderate, and the funding rate is positive, allowing for fee collection; if the price breaks through 0.00218, move the range up to 0.00218-0.00234.
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