📉 $BTC(2025‑08‑07 08:10)|Long and Short Trend Index: 55 / 100 (Neutral to Bullish)
BTC is currently around $114,903. Although the short-term strong upward momentum has not continued, it remains in a neutral to bullish pattern, and the structure is still relatively stable. The 15-minute chart momentum has turned negative, and signs of a pullback are appearing on the hourly chart; however, the details in the 4-hour and daily charts still show a bullish recovery state. A breakout above the $115,500–116,000 range with volume will further confirm the bullish recovery. Conversely, a drop below $114,000 may shift to a sideways trend.
🔹 Multi-Period Candlestick Trend Analysis:
15-minute chart: MA7/25 short-term golden cross has failed, MACD has turned negative, RSI has fallen to 43 → Short-term is under pressure and weak;
1-hour chart: Moving averages are slightly rising but flattening, MACD shows a dead cross trend at a high position, RSI is 54.7 → The structure is neutral, with potential for a pullback;
4-hour chart: MA system is transitioning from bearish, MACD has started to rise, RSI stabilizes at 52.5 → Bullish stabilization trend may continue;
Daily chart: Dropped below MA7 but remains between MA25 and MA99, MACD negative bars are shrinking, RSI is 48.8 → Structure is under repair;
Weekly chart: Moving average system is robust, MACD golden cross continues, RSI is 63.0 → Long-term trend remains bullish.
📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: Short-term momentum weakens, but the bullish trend in the 4-hour and weekly charts has not been damaged;
RSI: Short-term pullback but still above the midline, indicating momentum has not completely weakened;
Moving Average System: Both the 4-hour and daily charts are beginning to recover, multi-period direction has not formed a clear new high;
Trading Volume: Overall volume is average, no sudden changes in volume, structure remains stable.
🌐 Macro News Summary (Last 24 hours):
1. ETF Fund Dynamics: The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $196 million (August 5), while the Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $73 million.
2. Investor Behavior: This marks the fourth consecutive day of net outflows for the Bitcoin ETF, while institutions continue to redeem, reducing short-term bullish momentum.
3. Market Trend Background: Bitcoin has cumulatively pulled back about 3.1% this week, dropping from the July 31 high of $117,833 to the current approximately $114,128.
4. Market Sentiment: Despite significant technical resistance, a weak dollar and macro data have kept BTC above $114K, maintaining a better performance than altcoins (such as XRP, SOL down 3%), indicating that investors still prefer stability.