📉 $BTC (2025-08-12 09:30) | Long/Short Trend Index: 48 / 100 (Neutral to Weak)

BTC's current price is approximately $118,712. Short-term cycles show signs of correction, with the 15-minute and 1-hour charts indicating a weak structure and momentum retracement; although the 4-hour chart has not yet disrupted the bullish position, if it cannot effectively rise and break through the $119,000–120,000 range, it may shift into sideways movement or further adjustment.

Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:

15-minute Chart: MA7/25 falls below MA99, MACD shows a golden cross adjustment but the histogram is shrinking, RSI ≈ 39 → Short-term structure is weak;

1-hour Chart: Moving averages flatten and become resistance, MACD death cross expands, RSI ≈ 47 → Medium-term momentum weakens;

4-hour Chart: MA7/25 remains above MA99, MACD histogram is slightly positive, RSI ≈ 55 → Medium-term structure is neutral, but momentum has not strengthened;

Daily Chart: Price remains above MA25, MACD histogram is retracting from a high position, medium-term is still bullish;

Weekly Chart: Bullish arrangement is maintained, long-term structure remains strong.

Technical Indicator Analysis:

MACD: Short-term momentum shows clear retracement, but the 4-hour and daily charts still maintain a golden cross structure;

RSI: Short-term falls below the midpoint (50), indicating increased downward pressure; the daily chart remains stable above the midpoint, with room for recovery;

Moving Average System: Short-term structure is weak, long-term pattern remains bullish;

Trading Volume: No obvious signs of significant volume drop or shorting, and the market has not yet formed a consensus trend.

Macro News Summary (Last 24 Hours):

1. ETF significant inflow slowdown: Bitcoin ETF still has funds buying in, but daily net inflow has dropped from a peak to below $100M, leading to a short-term weakening of capital momentum.

2. Policy and market sentiment stable: Crypto inclusion in 401(k) policies continues to support institutional holdings, but there are currently no new significant policy drivers or reversal signals.

3. Risk aversion sentiment weakens, funds diversify and become active again: Gold remains the primary safe-haven asset, but BTC shows differentiated performance after some capital inflow, with no significant bearish structure observed.