📉 $BTC (2025-08-06 10:48) | Long/Short Trend Index: 35 / 100 (Slightly Bearish and Consolidating)

📉 $BTC (2025-08-05 09:15) | Long/Short Trend Index: 47 / 100 (Neutral to Bearish)
BTC is currently at $114,861, maintaining a weak oscillation after retreating from its peak. Short-term momentum continues to weaken, MACD death cross is expanding, and RSI is approaching the weak zone. The daily MACD is flat at a high level, and the weekly remains in a bullish structure but with slowing momentum. If it loses the key support at 114,000, it may further test the 112,000 area.



🔹 Multi-Period K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-minute chart: MA7/25 crosses below MA99, MACD death cross amplifies, RSI falls to 43.66, short-term bearish oscillation pattern;
1-hour chart: Short-term moving averages entangled and flattening, although MACD still shows a golden cross, the histogram has noticeably shrunk, RSI is at 53.08, momentum is weakening, suspected top formation;
4-hour chart: MA25/7 rebound is obstructed, price is close to MA99 consolidation, MACD golden cross weakens, RSI is at 50.20, at the critical point of the trend;
Daily chart: Price has pulled back to near MA7 at a high level, MACD histogram continues to shrink, RSI has dropped to 48.37, indicating signs of trend loss of control;
Weekly chart: MACD is still golden cross but the top is starting to show, histogram is shrinking, RSI is at 63.04, on the edge of the strong zone, and marginal momentum is weakening.

📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: 15m/1H death cross appears, 4H weakens, daily top is flattening, weekly histogram shrinks, clear overall weakening signs;
RSI: 15m critical oversold, 1H/4H high-level pullback to mid-axis, daily/weekly approaching midline, risk of trend imbalance increases;
Moving Average System: MA system begins to bond or flatten at daily and lower periods, short-term directional weakening;
Volume: Continuous low throughout the cycle, no obvious increase signal, indicating that market sentiment is more cautious.

🌐 Macro News Summary (Last 24 hours):
1. [Glassnode August 4, 22:30] Activity of long-term holders (LTH) of BTC has declined, on-chain data shows some early addresses making small moves;
2. [Bloomberg August 4, 21:00] The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman stated, "The interest rate path for September remains undecided," market rate hike expectations have decreased, which is bullish for risk assets in the short term;
3. [CryptoQuant August 4, 20:15] BTC's overall network miner outflow hits a new low, selling pressure has eased, but buying pressure has not emerged;
4. [The Block August 4, 18:45] Deribit data shows that BTC's implied volatility has continued to decline over the past week, indicating that short-term funds do not expect significant market movements.