Bitcoin Short-term Trend
Current Price $114,490.95 (↑0.54%), but down 3.62% in the last 7 days, in a weak consolidation. The market is dominated by sellers, with obvious selling pressure, retail trading is active but major players are not buying, lacking strong buying support.
Resistance Level $118,000-$120,000, if it cannot break through, bears may gain strength; Support Level $110,000, breaking below may trigger a chain liquidation.
Recent rebound only cleared a small amount of short positions, leverage levels are cautious, and market enthusiasm is cooling down.
Operational Window
Signals for reducing positions and waiting have strengthened: whales are depositing large amounts of coins to exchanges, distributing high risk; MVRV ratio is 2.23, price may be overvalued.
Net outflow of 3,264 BTC from exchanges in 24 hours, some investors are exiting, intensifying the long-short battle. Derivative liquidity is shrinking, main funds have not concentrated on entry, price may oscillate at high levels or test the bottom, short-term should be light positions.
Macroeconomic Briefing
US July Non-Farm Payroll data is poor, strengthening expectations for a rate cut in September (probability 65%), favorable for risk assets, but Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director raises concerns about data credibility.
On August 7, the US increased tariffs on Switzerland by 39%, temporarily suppressing risk appetite, but may boost inflation in the medium to long term, favorable for safe-haven assets.
Market Greed Index is rising, Bitcoin has a high correlation with gold (0.85), daily MACD golden cross, breaking $120,000 may accelerate upward. Beware of the US strengthening regulations on foreign capital gains tax.
Must-watch events
On August 7, US tariffs on Switzerland took effect, beware of market volatility.
On August 8] US July CPI data, affecting the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision, inflation exceeding expectations may suppress BTC.
[Medium-term Risks] Changes in Federal Reserve personnel, credibility crisis of economic data.
Strategy Recommendations
Aggressive: Light positions for short-term, chase longs with small positions if breaking $118,000, stop loss or follow shorts if breaking $110,000.
Conservative: Wait and see, decide after the August 8 CPI data, if price stabilizes below $114,000, may consider small positions for low absorption (set stop loss).
No position: Patiently wait, re-enter after this week's events conclude.