First, let’s summarize today’s market:
Short-term trend of Bitcoin
Current price $114,490.95 (↑0.54%), but down 3.62% in the last 7 days, in a weak consolidation. The market is dominated by sellers, with obvious selling pressure; retail trading is active but there is little absorption from major players, lacking strong buying power.
Resistance level $118,000-$120,000, if it cannot break through, bears may gain strength; support level $110,000, if it falls below, it may trigger a chain liquidation.
Recent rebound only cleared a small number of short positions, leverage levels are becoming cautious, and market enthusiasm is cooling.Operation window
Signals for reducing positions and waiting are strengthening: large whales are depositing a large amount of coins to exchanges, distributing high risks; MVRV ratio 2.23, the price may be overvalued.
Net outflow of 3,264 BTC from exchanges in the last 24 hours, some investors are exiting, intensifying the long-short game. Derivative liquidity is shrinking, major funds have not concentrated their involvement, the price may oscillate at a high level or test the bottom, and it is advisable to hold light positions in the short term.Macroeconomic brief
Poor U.S. non-farm data for July strengthens the expectation of a rate cut in September (probability 65%), which is favorable for risk assets, but Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics raises concerns over data credibility.
On August 7, the U.S. imposed a 39% tariff on Switzerland, temporarily suppressing risk appetite, but may push up inflation in the medium to long term, benefiting safe-haven assets.
The market greed index is rising, Bitcoin has a high correlation with gold (0.85), daily MACD golden cross, breaking through $120,000 may accelerate upward. Caution is needed regarding the U.S. strengthening regulation on offshore capital gains tax.Risk warnings and must-watch events
[August 7] U.S. tariffs on Switzerland take effect, beware of market fluctuations.
[August 8] U.S. July CPI data, impacting the Fed's rate cut decision; inflation exceeding expectations may suppress BTC.
[Mid-term risk] Changes in Fed personnel, credibility crisis of economic data.
Operation suggestions
Aggressive: Light short-term positions, small positions chasing long if breaking $118,000, stop loss or follow shorts if falling below $110,000.
Conservative: Wait and see, decide after the August 8 CPI data; if the price stabilizes below $114,000, a small position can be taken (set a stop loss).
Empty position holders: Wait patiently, enter after this week's events conclude.