The trader's interpretation mainly involves deconstructing and analyzing the trader's real trading performance and transaction data, helping followers understand the follower mode and better familiarize themselves with the trader's trading habits and operational preferences; it does not constitute any investment advice, and we try to provide objective interpretation as much as possible.
Interpreting the Trader @神隐Alvin
I just happened to see大神 when I was browsing the post a few days ago. It happened that some friends in the group privately asked if they could interpret the operation of 大神! The friend was following the order very early before, but he went in laughing and came out crying; so we also want to see what is going on?
Background Board: Teacher Shenyin seems to have only started taking orders on Binance this year. You can see the approximate time from his order-taking time, which is around May of this year. In addition to Binance, he also participated in the order-taking mode on OKX. From the data alone, the data is better than that of Binance. Today's analysis is simply from the perspective of the Binance account, combined with historical transaction data and other data to make a simple analysis of its operation. A complete analysis report has been generated, and interested friends can leave a message to send the complete version.
Enough small talk, let's take a look at the overall data first
#ROI: 180-day ROI is -43.51%, which doesn't look very good, but the cumulative profit and loss is a positive 21,159.69 USDT, which is a bit interesting.
Order-taking Scale: Assets under management (AUM) reached 177,191.18 USDT, which is still a bit of strength. The order-taking and follower fund scale fund, and the order-taking margin accounts for about 6.7%.+
Followers: Currently 157 followers, total profit and loss of followers is -166,437.09 USDT, overall in a loss state.
Sharpe Ratio: 1.49 is relatively low, no major problems.
Win Rate: Nominal win rate as high as 89.18%, the surface data is extremely attractive.
Key Conflict: The trader's personal account has accumulated profits (+21,159.69 USDT), while the follower account group has suffered huge losses, forming a clear contrast.
Profit and Loss Performance
Initial Capital: The initial margin invested by the trader was 10,300.02. The current margin balance is basically the same as the initial margin. It is not difficult to find from his fund records that the trader always maintains the margin in a relatively stable state. If there is a profit, he will withdraw it, and if there is a loss, he will supplement it. This operation is almost consistent with his description in the personal signature, and the execution is relatively high.
Win Rate: Nominal win rate of 89.18%, most profitable orders are small, and can be quickly closed (the rate of return is stable at around 1%, which may be the take profit). If there is a loss, the trader may choose to resist, but not for too long. Only one order in June was relatively large, and a large loss was caused by carrying the order.
Maximum Profit and Loss: The maximum single loss is -5,974.57 USDT, and the maximum single profit is +3,357.39 USDT. The maximum loss amount is 1.78 times the maximum profit amount. Several large losses have lowered the overall profit and loss, especially for the follower group. The huge losses of a few people have outweighed the small profits of the majority.
Trading Preferences
Preference Direction (Long/Short): Obvious preference for long positions. The number of long trades is 2.2 times the number of short trades (128 long / 58 short). It also shows a situation of crossing long and short positions to eat segments.
Preferred Currency: Highly concentrated in ETH, accounting for 75.27%, followed by BTC, accounting for 18.28%, with a high focus on mainstream high-liquidity assets.
Holding Time: The vast majority of transactions are consistent with his self-description as a "short-term trader". However, his longest holding time exceeds 20 days, which is seriously inconsistent with his short-term style. This is usually direct evidence that after a large floating loss occurs in a transaction, he is unwilling to stop the loss and is forced to hold it for a long time.
Handling Strategy in Case of Loss: Tend to hold losing positions, do not stop loss or delay stop loss, and may even adopt a "Martingale" style of adding positions, waiting for the price to rebound, and there is a behavior of carrying orders.
Handling Strategy in Profitable State: Tend to quickly realize small profits to maintain a high win rate, and quickly close most profitable orders.
Follower Perspective
Follower Time Part: The upper limit of followers is 600, and there are currently about 170 followers; and according to the current distribution of follower time, only about 15% of users have followed for more than 40 days, and more than half of the users have followed for less than 15 days. This also indirectly shows that the previous large retracement of the order has led to the loss of a large number of users, but the recent profit performance has indeed attracted the attention of many followers.
Follower Profit Distribution: 84 profitable followers, 72 losing followers. The number of profitable people is slightly more than the number of losing people, but the huge losses of a few losing people far exceed the total small profits of the majority of profitable people. However, combined with the total profit and loss of followers of -166,437 USDT, the conclusion is obvious: the huge losses generated by a few losing people far exceed the total small profits of the majority of profitable people. This further confirms the risk of "black swan" style large losses in its strategy.
Strategy Interpretation
"Shenyin Alvin" is an experienced but aggressive short-term trader. His core strategy is a "Martingale variant" strategy with a high win rate and low profit-loss ratio. He maintains a high win rate by quickly harvesting small profits, but at the cost of taking the risk of occasional huge losses.
This strategy inherently contains huge potential retracements. Followers must realize that following this trader, the net worth curve may rise steadily and slightly most of the time, but will suddenly experience a cliff-like decline.
"Shenyin Alvin" seems to be aware of the risks of the current strategy, so he clearly stated the operation suggestions for followers in his personal signature for reference. This trader is not suitable for risk-averse users or those seeking stable growth. Before following, you must have a clear psychological expectation that your account may suffer significant losses in a short period of time.
Focus on Risks
Fund Exhaustion Risk: The martingale strategy can quickly exhaust account funds due to doubling and adding positions, and continuous losses.
Signal Source Quality Risk: Following a signal source that performs poorly will amplify losses.
Market Extreme Volatility Risk: Black swan events or unilateral market conditions may lead to liquidation.
The above analysis is conducted by WolfDAO (x: @10xwolfdao) for data collection and comprehensive analysis, and does not constitute actual investment advice; friends are welcome to join the exchange together. If you have a trader analysis you want to see, you can also tell us in the comment area.
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