The possibility is extremely low. The next window for lowering interest rates is not expected until September. How much impact will this have on the upcoming bull market in the cryptocurrency space? Is it good news or bad news? The answer may be different from what you think!
If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, the cryptocurrency market will not move? Wrong!
Many people believe that the cryptocurrency bull market relies entirely on the Federal Reserve's liquidity; if rates do not drop, funds will not flow in, and the bull market will be delayed. However, the logic of the cryptocurrency market has never been solely about liquidity. Looking back at past bull markets, Bitcoin's surge is often strongly correlated with halving cycles, market sentiment, institutional entry, and other factors, while Federal Reserve policy is merely a 'bonus', not a 'mandatory option'.
For example, in March 2020, when the world flooded with liquidity, Bitcoin indeed soared, but during the 2017 bull market, the Federal Reserve was still raising rates, and the cryptocurrency market still surged. This indicates that liquidity can boost a bull market, but it is not the only engine. In the current market, with ETF funds continuously flowing in, institutional layouts accelerating, and global inflation expectations still present, even if the Federal Reserve delays lowering rates, the bull market will come!
Interest Rate Cut in September vs No Cut: How will the cryptocurrency market move?
If there is no interest rate cut in July, the market may experience short-term fluctuations, but it will not change the larger trend. The key is whether the rate cut really begins in September:
If interest rates are cut in September: global liquidity expectations will increase, institutional funds will flow in faster, Bitcoin may usher in a new round of explosive growth, and altcoins will also go crazy.
If interest rates do not drop in September: the market will continue to speculate, but the effects within the cryptocurrency space and institutional demand remain, and the bull market may proceed more steadily rather than abruptly stopping.
In other words, lowering interest rates is an 'accelerator', not a 'switch'. The foundation of the bull market has already been laid, and lowering interest rates will only make the market more vibrant, but even if delayed, it won't extinguish the bull market completely.
The real risk is not the Federal Reserve, but...
Compared to the Federal Reserve's policy, cryptocurrency investors should pay more attention to two key points:
Can you hold on? Bull markets often experience sharp declines, and many people get shaken out due to short-term fluctuations, missing the main upward wave.
Can you escape at the peak? History shows that 90% of people who make money in a bull market will lose it back in a bear market.
The Federal Reserve's policy will affect short-term fluctuations, but the fate of the bull market ultimately depends on the market cycle and your operational strategy. If you can hold on and set a good profit-taking plan, then regardless of whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in July or September, you can reap the benefits of this wave!
The bull market has arrived; don't be disturbed by short-term noise!
No interest rate cut in July? It doesn't matter! The bull market in cryptocurrency will never end because of a delay in policy by one or two months. Once a trend is established, it will not easily reverse. What you need to do now is not to get caught up in the Federal Reserve's actions, but to ensure that you have:
Hold onto core assets;
Control your position, don't go all-in;
Formulate a clear exit strategy.
Only a few people make money, and those who can navigate through bull and bear markets will never lose their composure due to short-term policy changes. The bull market is still on; are you ready?
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