Last night, there were no surprises in interest rates, but the main players came in with a wave of pin bars, with severe fluctuations in the US stock market/crypto market/gold prices, but no change in price. Many people lost their positions, with a total of 144,050 people globally being liquidated, amounting to $434 million.
Yesterday, Sweet Dream wrote about the bull market meat grinder! Bitcoin plummeted by 114,000? Ethereum hit a pin at 3600? There is no altcoin season this round! It mentioned: 'If Ethereum dips in the second half of tonight, the extreme will be 3550-3536. 3680-3666 is a support level below 3712. As long as the best short-term long point is hit, go long decisively.' Last night, Ethereum reached Sweet Dream's best long point as expected, long at 3680, making a whopping 622%.
BTC
The BTC market is still in a range-bound fluctuation and has not broken out. The upper resistance is between 119000-120000, and the lower support is at 117000-116000. In terms of operations, it is still possible to participate around this range by shorting high and going long low.
Bitcoin had three consecutive bearish candles, and the daily K-line formed a bearish doji yesterday. The short-term upper resistance to focus on is 118500-119500-120500. Shorts can be considered around these levels. The lower support to watch is 116500-115500-114500, and longs can be considered at these levels to look for opportunities to participate.
Ethereum
Yesterday, Ethereum's daily K-line formed a small hammer bullish candle, relatively stronger than Bitcoin, with a smaller drop and lower trading volume, indicating that current selling pressure is relatively weak, so Ethereum is likely to continue rising and break through 4000.
The short-term upper resistance to focus on is 3870-3900-3950. Shorts can be considered around these levels. The lower support to watch is 3700-3650-3600; pulling back to these levels is where longs should consider entering.
The market has been fluctuating back and forth at high levels, still saying the same thing: do not chase highs or lows. Just as long as the range is not broken, refer to high shorts and low longs opportunities.
Altcoin
Bitcoin and Ethereum both experienced a rapid rebound after a short-term crash today, while altcoins remain sluggish. Every time Bitcoin drops, it rebounds quickly, appearing strong; however, the pressure is enormous. If Bitcoin cannot continue to break new highs, altcoins may enter a trend of oscillating downwards.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting remained unchanged, which met market expectations. However, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from about 60% over the past week to 43.3%, which is a bit concerning. If there is still no rate cut in September, Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to rise due to strong buying from ETFs and listed companies, but the altcoin season may be in jeopardy.
The fundamental reason why many mainstream coins and altcoins are not rising:
There are too many projects, insufficient attention, and funds in the market can no longer focus or trust them. Sometimes the operating costs of projects cannot be supported, leading to a situation where they won't pump too high but will instead turn to selling coins and shorting, as the latter has lower costs and higher returns.
In the big trend, when to short?
This must be when Bitcoin and Ethereum are under pressure, that is, when they are rising, definitely not when they are falling to chase shorts.
After Bitcoin's first surge to 120,000, many opportunities have already arisen, and shorts should focus on those coins that had a top structure at the end of last year and have recently surged again.
Which coin to short?
Not focusing on mainstream (top 30 by market cap) but only on relatively high market cap coins, I believe many coins this round are high market cap vaporware, such as MASK and FARTCOIN, GRASS, Binance's new coins, MEME, most of which are vaporware.
Remember, if your position is not large, you must take a long position. No coin will drop dramatically in one day; it will oscillate downwards. You must be patient and control your position well to hold for the long term.
Previously, RY predicted that the market would slowly return to old VC and projects that truly do work, rather than the indiscriminate issuance of new coins and the memes that appeared in the last two years.
When a large number of new coins are no longer receiving attention, and funds gradually return to rationality, rate cuts and the approval of altcoin ETFs will only be effective for mainstream altcoins. Smaller altcoins and many meme coins should go to zero, and eventually, the mainstream altcoins will have a significant opportunity.
