🔥CRV Countdown? Key $1 Game, Long and Short Battle Imminent!
Summary: CRV has surged 53% in 7 days, currently priced at $1.00, stuck between POC and the upper Bollinger band; spot buying is 2.18 times overwhelming selling, but contract positions have decreased for 5 consecutive days, with a funding rate of only +0.01%. If it breaks through $1.02 in the short term, it will aim for $1.08; if it falls below $0.96, it will retest $0.88. Use low leverage to take short positions, with a stop loss at $0.96 and a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.8; be cautious of long positions when chasing highs.
Key Range Structure and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC=0.990, trading volume of 170 million in the last 24 hours, Up/Down=57%/43%, classified as a “light long” structure.
2. High Volume Zone:
• 0.986-1.003 (HVN continuous accumulation), a short-term buffer zone, can be a good buying opportunity on retracement.
• 1.05-1.08 (Sell Wall 467k USDT), the next strong resistance.
3. Low Volume Gaps:
• 1.077 (LVN), no resistance after breaking through, can quickly rise to $1.1.
• 0.595 (LVN), if there is a waterfall decline, it will slide directly to $0.52.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 0.502-1.044, current price at the upper edge, short-term overbought.
Momentum Verification
• 1h Bollinger Bands: Price is 77% close to the upper band, upper band at $1.015, middle band at $0.986 (i.e., POC), lower band at $0.956.
• Contract Positions: 24h down 2.44%, funding rate +0.01%, long positions have not yet reversed.
• Spot net inflow +440k USDT (1d), contract net outflow -2.22M USDT, supporting spot prices.
Market Cycle
In the late stage of a medium-term rebound: 14-day increase of 100%, but OI is diverging from price, entering a “high position handover” consolidation range in the short term.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: On a retracement to the 0.986-0.996 range with ≥60% Up Volume, a 15m engulfing/hanging man candle, market buy, stop loss at $0.960 (below the lower band), target $1.05/$1.08, risk-reward ratio of 2.8.
Conservative: Wait for a breakthrough above $1.020 and close above $1.025, re-enter if it retraces to $1.020 without breaking, stop loss below $1.015.
Cautious: If it falls below $0.960, and rebounds to $0.965-$0.970 meets resistance, can take a small short position, stop loss at $0.975, target $0.925.
Risk Warning
• Key Break: If it breaks below $0.96 (Bollinger lower band + HVN) with increased volume, immediately stop loss on long positions.
• Event Risk: Macro bearish news or project team unlocking news can trigger a rapid pullback to $0.88.
• Liquidity: Dense sell wall above $1.08, breakthrough needs >1.5 times average volume confirmation, avoiding false breakouts.
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