“WIF surges 17% before braking? A showdown around 1.25, hitting the right rhythm could push it to 1.50 again!”
【Summary in One Sentence】
WIF has surged 17% in the short term and is now closely aligned with the upper Bollinger band, with POC 1.048 and upper LVN 1.27 becoming the dividing line for bulls and bears; the current price 1.247 allows for light position scaling down to buy near 1.20-1.22, stop loss at 1.18, and targets at 1.35-1.50, risk-reward ratio ≈1:3; if it breaks down with volume below 1.18, the bullish structure is broken, and one should go short.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchor: POC 1.048, maximum transactions in 2 weeks, a pullback that does not break is seen as the lifeline for bulls.
2. High Volume Node (HVN): 1.00-1.02, 1.04-1.05, both segments >200 million U, price is likely to oscillate or rebound here.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN): upper 1.27-1.30, lower 0.78-0.81, once the price enters, it often passes through quickly.
4. 70% Trading Range: 0.836-1.117, the current price of 1.247 has broken the upper boundary ≈1.12×ATR, indicating a short-term overbought condition.
5. Momentum Verification: 1.05-1.12 interval Up Volume 52-54%, balance between bulls and bears; Down Volume above 1.20 rises to 65%, initial selling pressure appears.
【Market Cycle】
In the 3rd wave extension of a mid-term rebound, still in a large bearish market rebound in the long term; short-term caution for a 4th wave pullback, if it falls below 1.18, it confirms a transition to consolidation.
【Trading Strategy】
Aggressive: Buy on pullback to LVN inner side 1.20-1.22 + Bollinger middle track 1.21 resonance, stop loss at 1.18 (recent HVN at 1.17 outside), targets 1.35/1.50, risk-reward ratio ≈3.1.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 1.05-1.07 HVN and Up Volume >60% before re-entering, stop loss at 1.02, targets 1.15-1.18, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
Cautious: If 1.30 LVN breaks out with volume and Up Volume >65%, chase long, stop loss at 1.26, targets 1.50, risk-reward ratio ≈4.6.
【Risk Warning】
1. Contract positions' 24h growth rate slows, long-short ratio rises to 3.01, leveraged long positions are crowded and could trigger a sell-off.
2. The net outflow of spot over 5 days is -6.6M; if this continues, it will weaken buying pressure.
3. If the stop loss level is breached, the funding rate turns negative, or macro factors become unfavorable, the strategy becomes invalid immediately.
4. Individual position ≤1%, avoid high volatility periods during the opening of the US stock market.
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