LINK daily candles are pushing towards 20, with sell orders stacked at the market and contract funds having a net outflow exceeding 2.2M for 5 consecutive days; short-term overbought + outside Bollinger band = potential retest at any time; retest 19.5-19.3 LVN can be a low buy, stop loss at 19.1, target 20.8, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4; if volume breaks below 19.1, the trend turns bearish, reverse and short to 18.4.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value anchor: POC 15.62 (7.6M volume) — the main cost base for bulls, extreme point for pullback.
2. High trading volume zone:
• 19.36-19.45 HVN (5.8M volume) — the first resistance buffer above the current price.
• 18.38-18.47 HVN (5.8M volume) — retest support zone.
3. Low trading volume gap:
• 19.81-19.99 LVN (170-200k volume) — acceleration zone after breakout, quick retest.
• 17.40-17.58 LVN (150-180k volume) — gap for bears to cover, the last defense line for bulls.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: 13.21-19.54, current price near the upper edge, short-term overbought.
[Momentum Validation]
• 19.8-20.0 LVN: Up Volume 100%, but the volume is only 1.2M, indicating retail chasing the rise.
• 18.4 HVN: Up Volume 54%, balanced between bulls and bears; retest this area + volume > 60% is viewed as a signal for bulls to regroup.
• Contract OI has been decreasing continuously for 1h-12h, long/short ratio increased from 2.11 to 2.29, dominated by bears reducing positions, but short-term still has upward momentum.
[Market Cycle]
The third wave of the mid-term bull market is extending, short-term entering the final acceleration; weekly breakout after 18 shows volume-price divergence, needing a daily-level retest for confirmation.
[Trading Strategy]
• Aggressive: 19.51-19.55 LVN retest, if a bullish candle appears on the 15m and Up Volume > 60%, enter, stop loss at 19.10 (below HVN 18.47 + 0.5 ATR), target 20.80 (next HVN 21.0-22.0 lower edge), risk-reward ratio = 2.4.
• Conservative: Wait to re-enter at 19.30-19.35 (0.618 retracement above HVN 18.47), stop loss at 19.00, target 20.30, risk-reward ratio = 2.8.
• Conservative: If volume breaks below 19.10, short on the rebound to 19.20, stop loss at 19.50, target 18.40, risk-reward ratio = 2.1.
[Risk Warning]
1. The sell orders at the market are stacked in the 20-24 range totaling 2.4M; if there is a rapid rise, it is likely to be targeted by bears.
2. Contract funds have net outflow for 5 consecutive days totaling -2.27M, indicating signs of profit-taking by the main force.
3. Strategy invalidation: Loss of 19.1 or daily close below the middle Bollinger band at 18.9;
4. Control position ≤ 1%, avoid high volatility periods during US stock market open.
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