PENGU's daily line has broken through the 0.03 value anchor area with increased volume. RSI at 82 indicates overbought conditions + accumulated sell orders in the order book. A pullback to 0.034-0.035 LVN is a low buy window, stop loss at 0.0328, target at 0.0425, risk-reward ratio of 3.3; if the volume drops below 0.0328, the bullish structure fails, and one should switch to shorting.
[Key Area Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value anchoring area: 0.0307-0.0318 (POC + 70% volume coverage)
• The 20-day cumulative trading volume is 23B, accounting for 70%, which is the core cost zone for bulls.
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 0.0307-0.0318: Price falling back to this level is very likely to attract buying support;
• 0.0425: Long-term sell wall at 1.52M, the first target for the short term.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN):
• 0.034-0.035: Only 9M traded, considered a 'void', high probability of a quick rebound after a pullback;
• 0.0378-0.0382: If it breaks below, it will directly test 0.0328.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.0143-0.0337, with the current price at 0.0373, which is at the upper edge outside of 1.2×ATR, overbought in the short term.
5. Momentum validation:
• The area above POC at 0.0307-0.0318 has an Up Volume of 57%, with buying slightly dominant;
• The pullback area of 0.034-0.035 LVN has Up Volume rising to 63%, confirming buyer initiative.
6. Auxiliary indicators:
• The upper Bollinger Band on the 1h chart at 0.03695 has been broken, with a divergence of 103%. A pullback is needed in the short term;
• MA200 at 0.0306, with a deviation of 21%, the medium-term trend remains strong;
• 24h contract positions increased by 16%, long-short ratio at 1.56, bulls are adding positions but the funding rate is only 0.008%, not overheated.
7. Order book anomalies:
• A sell order of 35.7B PENGU at 0.0425 has formed a significant resistance;
• A buy wall between 0.03-0.0305 has accumulated 47M, serving as key intraday support.
[Market Cycle]
Currently in a short-term consolidation phase after the 'mid-bull market acceleration stage':
• 14-day increase of 156%, net inflow from contracts at -2.2B, with some bulls taking profits;
• 30-day increase of 332%, long-term funds are still flowing in, and pullbacks are seen as an opportunity to enter.
[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive: Buy if a 5m level Pin Bar appears on the pullback at 0.034-0.035 LVN, stop loss at 0.0328 (-4.6%), take profit at 0.0425 (+21%), risk-reward ratio of 3.3.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to POC at 0.0307-0.0318 and Up Volume > 60% before re-entering, stop loss at 0.0295, target at 0.0389, risk-reward ratio of 2.8.
Conservative: After breaking through 0.0425 with increased volume (≥1.5 times average volume), go long, stop loss at 0.0395, target at 0.0478, risk-reward ratio of 2.1.
[Risk Control Reminder]
• Key failure: 1h close below 0.0328 (recent HVN lower edge) and Down Volume > 55%, which damages the bullish structure.
• Position: Single risk ≤ 1%, ATR 0.0014, corresponding leverage ≤ 7 times.
• Time: Avoid the delivery period from 08:00 to 12:00 UTC+8 to prevent spike issues.
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