Current ENA price is 0.5027, has deviated from MA200 by about 30%, is at the edge of the 70% value area of VPVR; if it pulls back to 0.47-0.48 LVN and Up Volume > 60%, can go long, target at 0.521 HVN, stop loss below 0.46, risk-reward ratio 1:3. Risk: Contract position net outflow of 45M in 24h, sell orders accumulated at 4.1M, if it drops below 0.46 with volume, it will trigger a bull liquidation.
[Range Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.3479 (948M volume), 45% above current price, a protection zone for bulls.
2. High Volume Area: 0.335-0.360, HVN buffer formed near 0.521; 4.1M orders above 0.521, short-term ceiling.
3. Low Volume Gap: 0.297-0.301, 0.525-0.526; Up Volume 100% at 0.297, can go long on pullback; 0.525 is the breakout point for a long reversal.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.256-0.503, current price is close to the upper edge, short-term overbought risk is evident.
[Momentum Validation]
• POC area Up:Down ≈ 1:1, neutral; 0.297 LVN Up Volume 100%, dominated by bulls; 0.521 HVN Down Volume 60%, bears are ambushing.
• The trading volume in the last 4 hours increased by 5.6M, but contract positions decreased by -1.46%, volume-price divergence, beware of false breakouts.
[Auxiliary Judgment]
• Bollinger Bands: 66% position, upper band at 0.5135 forms the first resistance.
• MA200: 0.386, deviation of 30%, demand for mean reversion is rising.
• Contract positions: net outflow of 45M in 24h, long positions reduced, short positions increased, short-term bulls reduced positions.
[Market Cycle]
Mid-term in a 'bottom raising' oscillating upward segment; short-term entering 'high-level consolidation' period due to excessive divergence, waiting for a pullback confirmation.
[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive: LVN pullback at 0.481-0.485, enter when PinBar + Up Volume > 60%, stop loss at 0.46 (-4.6%), target at 0.521 (+7.8%), risk-reward ratio 1:3.4.
Steady: Wait for a volume breakout above 0.521 and a stable close on 15m; if it pulls back to 0.518 without breaking, then go long, stop loss at 0.513, target at 0.55, risk-reward ratio 1:3.1.
Conservative: Short on break below 0.46, stop loss at 0.467, target at 0.42, risk-reward ratio 1:2.8.
[Risk Warning]
1. Contract funding rate is only 0.005%, low cost for bulls, could collectively take profits at any time.
2. Sell orders of 4.1M concentrated at 0.521; if it cannot break out with volume within 2 hours, bullish momentum will weaken.
3. On a macro level, pay attention to BTC volatility; if BTC breaks key support, ENA may pull back to the 0.42 area.
4. Single position ≤ 1%, avoid high leverage overnight, proactively reduce positions before major data.
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