【FOMO Alert】SAFE 0.49 Breakthrough Imminent: Value Anchoring Area Bullish Gathering, Wait Another Year If Missed?

Summary: SAFE current price 0.4943 close to the upper Bollinger band, POC 0.433 after massive turnover funds flowing back, short-term pullback 0.488-0.491 is the bullish entry area, stop-loss 0.481, target 0.525-0.535, risk-reward ratio 2.4; if it falls below 0.48, the trend weakens, reverse short target 0.465.

Key Interval Structure

• Value Anchor: POC 0.433, UpVol 70%, heavy concentration of main force costs.

• High Volume Buffer: HVN1 0.424-0.427, HVN2 0.430-0.434, pullback provides support.

• Low Volume Gap: LVN 0.465-0.470 as breakthrough acceleration area, price once crossed in a day.

• 70% Value Area: 0.418-0.587, current price at the upper edge 76%, slightly overbought but not extreme.

Momentum Verification

UpVol above POC is >60%, 4h-8h contract net outflow -257k with +1.8% increase, significant short covering; 1h position slightly increased 0.17% and long-short ratio decreased -1.7, short-term bulls control the market.

Auxiliary Indicators

• MA200 0.475, deviation 4%, medium-term slightly strong.

• Upper Bollinger Band 0.498, in a contraction state, breakthrough requires volume.

• OI 7d decreased -8% but price increased 7.4%, shorts reducing positions pushing up.

Trading Strategy

1. Pullback to Buy (Conservative)

Entry: 0.488-0.491 (Upper edge of LVN + Middle track of Bollinger)

Stop-loss: 0.481 (Lower track -0.5×ATR≈0.007)

Target: 0.525 / 0.535 (Next HVN & 2×ATR)

Risk-reward ratio: Target 0.525 → (0.525-0.490)/(0.490-0.481)=3.9; Conservative 0.515 → 2.4

2. Breakthrough to Buy (Aggressive)

Entry: 15m close >0.498 and UpVol≥1.5×average

Stop-loss: 0.493

Target: 0.525-0.535

3. Failure Reverse (Hedge)

Trigger: Falls below 0.481 and DownVol >60%

Entry: 0.480

Stop-loss: 0.486

Target: 0.465 (Center of LVN)

Risk Warning

• Main Risks: Macro sentiment turning bearish, BTC sharp drop dragging down altcoins, sudden rise in funding rates.

• Strategy Failure: Falls below 0.48 and 1h OI does not decrease but increases is considered a bull trap.

• Risk Control: Single position ≤1%, avoid UTC 16:00 high volatility periods during funding rate settlement.

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