LUNA2 is currently stuck 2% above 0.1737 (POC) at the 'value anchor' edge; 24h contract holdings net outflow of 5.47M, long-short ratio has dropped to 1.83. If it breaks below 0.1713 HVN, it will retest LVN 0.1657; otherwise, a volume breakout above 0.1798 high volume area targets 0.1841. Risk-reward ratio 2.2, position ≤ 1%, stop loss at 0.1700.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor: POC = 0.1737, 180 million exchanged hands here in the past 2 weeks, Up/Down = 52%:48%, bulls and bears are in a stalemate.
2. High volume buffer (HVN):
• 0.1697-0.1707 (169 million) — First support for the day; breaking below will accelerate downward.
• 0.1798-0.1808 (146 million) — First resistance for the short term; breaking above confirms continuation of the bullish trend.
3. Low volume gap (LVN):
• 0.1657 (VAL lower bound) — 70% Value Area lower edge; breaking below triggers a chain of stop losses.
• 0.1583-0.1600 — Vacuum area; price could slide directly to 0.1563.
4. 70% trading area: 0.1476-0.1865, current price is in the upper half, slightly overbought but not extreme.
Momentum validation
• Up Volume 52% above POC; no absolute bullish dominance has formed.
• 1h-4h contract holdings have continuously decreased (-6.46%), with synchronized volume decline; the main force remains bearish.
• The 1h Bollinger Band middle line 0.1759 has been broken; the lower line 0.1713 coincides with HVN, forming the first line of defense.
Market cycle
In the 'low-level fluctuation bottoming' phase of the medium-term downward channel (12M contract net outflow -750 million, price -60%), waiting for a breakout confirmation in the short term.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Current price 0.1776, light short position, stop loss at 0.1798 (HVN upper edge +0.5ATR ≈ 0.002), target 0.1713-0.1657, risk-reward ratio 2.2.
Stable: Wait for a break below 0.1713 and then a pullback to 0.1725 to short, stop loss at 0.1741, target 0.1657.
Conservative: If 15m volume breaks 0.1798 and Up Volume > 60%, go long, stop loss at 0.1770, target 0.1841 (next HVN).
Risk warning
• Key breakdown: If 0.1713 HVN and MA200 (0.1724) break simultaneously, the bullish structure is damaged.
• Liquidity: LVN 0.1657-0.1583 has slippage risk; avoid high leverage.
• Macro: Funding rate 0.01%, bullish cost remains low; sudden negative news can easily trigger a sell-off.
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