This morning's ETH trend vividly staged a "high platform rapid drop"—from 3083 it plunged straight through 2950, this rapid drop caught many holders off guard, and breakfast almost fell off the table. Don't panic, let's dissect it: is this a signal of trend reversal, or a trap set by the main players?
The "nuclear bomb" effect of news
Trump's harsh words became the fuse: "If Russia and Ukraine do not reach an agreement within 50 days, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Russia and secondary sanctions implemented." This is no longer just a simple tariff increase, but more like a "bomb of uncertainty" dropped on the global trade chain.
Immediately following, the U.S. escalated threats, intending to sanction "all countries purchasing Russian oil," which directly stirred up a hornet's nest—Brazil announced countermeasures, and the EU has listed a $72 billion list of U.S. goods prepared for tariffs, instantly spreading the smell of gunpowder in the global trade war.
Such sudden geopolitical trade risks have always been the "warning line" for large funds. When risk assets are collectively under pressure, volatile cryptocurrencies naturally bear the brunt. But upon further reflection: at the moment of news fermentation, will there be main players taking advantage of the situation to dump and harvest panic chips? This is worth pondering.
Technical "Guillotine" tricks
On the 1-hour K-line chart, this drop is textbook-level "more kills more":
A pullback is a healthy trend; as long as it does not break the daily support, the bullish trend remains unchanged.
A pullback is an opportunity to enter.
The current key defense line is already clear:
Strong support zone: 2930 line (upper edge of previous consolidation platform)
Lifeline: 2900 round number (once breached, it may trigger a chain of stop-losses)
Market projection: the direction of the chess game after panic
In the short term, within 1-2 days, the market is likely to move like this:
The main players are likely to repeatedly oscillate in the 2950 range, aiming to wash out panic chips and force retail investors to cut losses at low positions. This kind of "grinding market" tests the mentality; rushing to bottom fish or blindly cutting losses can easily fall into traps.
But looking at it over a longer period:
If expectations for the trade war cool down and market sentiment eases, ETH is likely to fill the gap from this morning, with 3000 points being the first target.
Don't forget, the technical benefits of the Cancun upgrade are still fermenting, coupled with the continuous inflow of funds from ETFs, the long-term fundamental logic has not changed.
Ultimately, the panic caused by tariffs will eventually fade with changes in news, and the underlying value logic of ETH has not changed due to this rapid drop. The more it is like this, the more we should avoid emotional trading. What the main players fear most is retail investors not chasing highs and selling lows, and holding firm. How to judge effective support and grasp entry opportunities later? It might be worth following, as subsequent strategies will be updated in a timely manner.