BTC's market is like a thunderclap - at the moment it breaks through the new high of 119,500, the upward channel on the K-line chart was forcefully torn open. This small bull market accelerated suddenly after a two-day halt; rather than saying it was a retail rush, it is more accurate to say that institutions are maneuvering: the Red Three Soldiers pattern firmly stands on the daily Bollinger Band upper band, and the MACD golden cross's red bars grow wildly like weeds, with both RSI and KDJ synchronously shouting 'the bulls are not old yet'. But the crazier the moment, the more one must see through the 'fake shorting trap' hidden behind the new high.

One, BTC: 119,000 is not the endpoint; after fake shorting, it may rush to 128,000.

Now looking at BTC's daily chart, there are almost no reasons to be bearish technically:


  • Red Three Soldiers + Bollinger Band Upper Band: Three consecutive bullish candles with increasing closing prices, steadily standing above the upper band. This pattern appeared during the 60,000 market in 2021 and subsequently rose by 40%;

  • Indicator Resonance: MACD golden cross opens (yellow line above blue line with a difference of 80), RSI is overbought but has not shown 'top divergence', KDJ's J value is high but has not turned down - institutions have forcefully turned the 'overbought signal' into a 'strong signal'.


But old players know that institutions love to play 'pullback fake shorting' after new highs:

  • The first target may pull back to 117,000-118,000 (digesting short-term profit-taking), in extreme cases may touch 115,000 (daily MA5 support);

  • Once the pullback stabilizes, the next wave of attack is likely aimed at 124,000-128,000 - a large number of short stop-loss orders are piled up here, and institutions rely on a combination of 'breaking new highs + pullback + re-attack' to completely harvest the shorts.


Operational advice:

  • Don’t rush to chase the current price; wait for a pullback to 117,000-118,000 to lightly test the long position, setting the stop loss below 115,000 (if the support breaks, just accept the loss);

  • If it directly breaks through 120,000, wait for the 1-hour K-line to stabilize before chasing, with the first target looking at 124,000, taking profit in halves is more prudent.

Two, ETH: 2,950 is key, 3,040 is not a ceiling.

ETH is slightly more restrained than BTC, but the upward momentum is equally solid:


  • After touching 3,030 USD in the early morning, it fell back and is now oscillating around 2,980. The 2,935-2,950 USD range is the daily MA10 support zone. It fell to 2,940 twice yesterday but was pulled back, indicating the bulls are defending fiercely;

  • The target is clear: 3,010-3,040 USD is recent resistance, but after breaking through, it may directly impact 3,100 (near the previous high) - after all, BTC has reached a new high, ETH has no reason to lag behind.


Operational strategy:

  • A pullback to 2,935-2,950 USD could be a light long position, with a stop loss at 2,900 USD (if it breaks, it indicates weakness);

  • If it first rushes to 3,040 USD, don't rush in, wait for the pullback to confirm support before adding positions - ETH's temperament is 'rapid rise must pull back', but often rebounds stronger after the pullback.

Three, Institutional Control Era: Don't be scared off the bus by 'fake shorting'.

The most obvious feature of this wave of market is 'institutional dominance':


  • Grayscale BTC Trust increased its holdings by 5,000 coins yesterday, the largest in nearly a month;

  • The spot premium on exchanges has reached 0.8% (normal is 0.3%), indicating that institutions are pouring money to grab chips, rather than retail investors chasing the rise.


In this situation, 'pullback fake shorting' is a common method used by institutions to wash out retail investors: deliberately crashing to make retail investors cut losses, then they take over and push to new highs. Remember: as long as BTC does not break below 115,000 and ETH does not break below 2,900, the upward trend remains intact.
When breaking through in the early morning, someone in the community shouted 'it's peaked', but the real peak is never 'a big bullish candle', but 'volume stagnation + indicator divergence'. Now these two signals have not appeared, instead of guessing the peak, it’s better to follow the trend - just like driving when you encounter a green light, don’t hit the brakes before reaching the intersection.
Today, focus on BTC's support at 117,000 and ETH's support at 2,950. If they hold, continue to look for higher levels.


#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC