If ETH can stabilize at 3100, it will indeed open up new imaginative space, but to say "a smooth path directly to 3900" may still underestimate the complexity of the market.

The 3100 position itself is a hurdle — it is both the upper limit of the previous oscillation range and a psychological threshold for the long-short capital game. If it truly breaks through, there is a high probability of a pullback for confirmation in the short term, as so many short positions are eyeing this point, and once triggered, it will create temporary selling pressure. As for whether it can touch 3900, it depends on two points: first, whether the volume after the breakout can be sustained, and second, whether the overall sentiment of the crypto market can shift from "defensive" to "offensive." The probability of a rapid rise is low, but the likelihood of a stepwise upward movement is higher.

Tonight's game is indeed crucial. On-chain data shows that short positions remain high, which in itself carries risks — when the market truly breaks through a key level, the short covering can create a "long squeeze" effect, commonly referred to as a "short sellers' graveyard." But on the flip side, the fact that so many shorts dare to hold positions indicates that there is still divergence in the market regarding ETH, and it may not happen all at once. The decisive battle between longs and shorts may not be settled tonight, but instead start a new round of chip exchange from the 3100 starting point.

Compared to short-term price fluctuations, what is more worth pondering is what you call the "light of infrastructure." The ecosystem of ETH is not built on K-line charts: the locked value of DeFi, the trading activity of NFTs, the user growth of Layer2, the landing speed of RWA, and even the technological breakthroughs of AI chains and ZK applications are the real "foundation." When a network runs assets and applications for millions of users, its value is no longer just speculation, but the "water, electricity, and coal" of the entire Web3 world.

Tonight may be a node for ETH to prove itself, but the true "path of kings" has never relied on a single night's surge, but on the code of each developer in the ecosystem, the participation of every user, and the iteration of each technological upgrade. Believing in it fundamentally means believing in this open, decentralized collaborative model, which can occupy a place in the future digital world.

The fluctuations in price are merely superficial; the sedimentation of underlying consensus is fundamental. Regardless of who has the upper hand tonight, the long-term value of ETH has long been slowly written into the blockchain through the operation of countless smart contracts. #CPI数据来袭