The thermometer of the crypto space has suddenly soared to scorching: both Ethereum's daily and weekly MACD have golden cross openings, Bitcoin has stabilized above 110,000 after breaking out, and even small coins like PEPE and SOL have started to catch up. But the on-chain data and the Fed's minor moves hide signals more critical than K-lines—should you chase the rise or escape the peak? After reading this, at least you can avoid 80% of the pitfalls.

1. Ethereum: 3060 is a hurdle, 4000 is a dream?

Now, looking at the ETH K-line chart, the technical indicators seem contradictory:


  • Bullish confidence: Both the daily and weekly MACD are golden crosses, and the difference between the yellow and blue lines is widening (the weekly difference has reached 50). Looking back at history, ETH rose from 2000 to 4800 in 2021 and from 880 to 4000 in 2023, both showing this 'golden cross opening' pattern—this indicates that long-term funds are still entering the market, and the trend is unbroken.

  • Short-term concerns: The RSI indicator has touched 70 (overbought warning line), with 3060 dollars stuck at the Fibonacci 0.618 level, where at least 300,000 ETH stop-loss orders are piled up (on-chain data shows that 2023's trapped orders are concentrated in the 3000-3200 range).


More importantly, the 'AMD operation trilogy' is coming to fruition: the first two years completed 'accumulation and sideways movement (A)' and 'false breakdown and shakeout (M)', and now entering the 'rally and distribution (D)' stage. At this pace, the first target will surge to 3000-3100 dollars (to digest trapped orders), and if Bitcoin can stabilize above 120,000, the next leg could reach 3600 or even 4000—but the premise is that this wave is not interrupted by a short-term pullback.
Operational suggestions:

  • For those holding assets, reduce 1/3 of your position near 3060 (to avoid short-term selling pressure);

  • For those looking to enter, wait for a pullback to 2920 (daily MA20) or 2860 (weekly midline) to add; these two levels have strong support.

  • Don't chase small coins like PEPE that are just catching up; they rise sharply and then fall even harder. Take profits while you can.

2. Bitcoin has formed a golden cross, but the Federal Reserve is 'pulling the rug out'

The MACD golden cross for Bitcoin has just formed on the daily chart, which should be a moment for the bulls to cheer, but the Federal Reserve has poured cold water on it:


  • The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped from 50% to 0, and the expectation of no rate cut in September has soared to 34%—Powell's 'flip-flop' has directly cooled the market's 'liquidity fantasy'. It’s important to know that this round of BTC rising from 60,000 to 110,000 was largely supported by 'rate cut expectations'.

  • More subtly, the Nasdaq index has already formed a MACD death cross. Although the correlation between the crypto space and US stocks has decreased, if Wall Street money withdraws from the stock market, the net inflow of crypto ETFs may shrink accordingly (recently, the daily average inflow of IBIT has dropped from 1 billion to 600 million).


However, Bitcoin also has its 'strengths': ETF holdings have surpassed 500,000, and institutions like Grayscale are still accumulating. After stabilizing above the 110,000 mark, the next resistance level is 118,000 (previous high), and the support level is 105,000 (weekly MA30).
The most common mistake for retail investors: like James, going 'all in on 110,000 short with 40x leverage' without a stop-loss—after the market breaks out, this kind of operation is no different from standing on the tracks waiting for a train. Remember: when the trend comes, don't resist it; if it breaks out and doesn't fall back to the previous high, it's a true breakout, and if you have shorts, you need to cut them.

3. Key signal: Next Tuesday's CPI data is a 'do-or-die' situation

The entire market is now waiting for the CPI data on July 11; this is more critical than the Fed's speeches:


  • The market predicts that CPI will rise to 2.7% (previous value 2.4%), with core CPI hitting 3.0%—these two numbers are purposely set high, like a teacher marking overly difficult exam points; as long as the actual results do not exceed expectations, it counts as 'good news'.

  • But if CPI really exceeds 3.0%, the Fed may be forced to 'raise rates'; by then, don’t even talk about ETH reaching 4000; it will be difficult for Bitcoin to hold above 100,000.


Veteran players know that in this 'expectation game', retail investors are the most easily swayed by emotions: the data comes out and rises by 5%, so they chase; it falls by 5%, so they cut. In fact, a more prudent approach is to wait for the data to settle, observe the 1-hour K-line, and only act after stabilizing key levels—such as chasing long if ETH stabilizes above 3060, cutting losses if it breaks below 2860, and not betting on 'instantaneous trends'.

Finally: how should we operate now?

This wave of the market feels like walking on a tightrope: the long-term trend is not broken, but short-term overbought + the Fed's flip-flop + concerns about the US stock market lead to a very low margin for error.


  • Conservatives: Reduce positions at ETH 3060, stop-loss for BTC below 105,000; being in cash is better than making random trades (isn't the recent example of James blowing up enough?);

  • Aggressive: Only do short-term 'catch-up small coins', for example, buying SOL at 120-130 dollars, taking profits around 150 dollars, and keep the position under 20%;

  • Core principle: Don't believe in 'guaranteed profits' nonsense; money in the crypto space is made on 'probability'—understanding the trend of the MACD golden cross must also guard against RSI overbought pullbacks; that is the skill to survive.


The hotter the market, the tighter you need to hold onto your stop-loss rope. The dream of Ethereum reaching 4000 can be entertained, but first, you need to ensure you survive until that day.
#BTC再创新高