The ETH market on July 12 was like a tense tug-of-war — it surged to $3040 in the morning, as if the bulls were about to kick open the door to $4000, but suddenly lost momentum in the afternoon, dropping to a low of $2920. Fortunately, the key support at $2900 held. Currently, ETH is like a marathon runner arriving at a supply station, seemingly slowing down but actually gathering strength for the next sprint.
1. Intraday movement: Bulls are catching their breath, but not out of breath.
Today's pullback hides three key signals:
The pullback after a spike isn't fatal: $3040 is a recent 'psychological barrier', with many short-term profit-takers stacked here. The pullback is a normal washout (on-chain data shows there are 50,000 ETH above $3000 being cashed out);
The support level is strong enough: $2920 is just right on the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line, which has been the central axis of fluctuations for the past two weeks, while $2900 is the 'lifeline' of the daily MA30 moving average. It has quickly rebounded twice upon touching, indicating that the bulls are still defending the price.
Momentum is accumulating: The MACD daily golden cross hasn't broken down yet, it's just that the red bars have shortened a bit, like an athlete slowing down to adjust their breathing, it's not a sign of fatigue.
2. Operational strategy: Focus on the 'golden pit' at $2880-$2910.
In the current market, rushing to chase the rise can easily lead to getting stuck, and blindly shorting is even more dangerous. A prudent approach is:
Low long opportunity: If it pulls back to the $2880-$2910 range and shows a 'long lower shadow' or 'two bullish candles stabilizing', you can try a small long position (keep it under 10% of your capital), targeting $3030 (near today's high), with a stop loss set below $2850 (if support is broken, acknowledge your loss);
High short speculation: If it rebounds to $3040-$3050 and shows a 'long upper shadow' (getting slammed down after a spike), you can try a small short position, targeting $2950, with a stop loss at $3060 (if it truly breaks out, don't stubbornly hold on).
Remember: We are currently in a 'volatile market', don't expect a sudden surge. It's like fishing; you have to wait for the fish to bite before you pull the rod. Rushing to cast will only waste effort.
3. Mid-term trend: The upward channel is intact, and the pullback is a 'supply station'.
Looking at the longer cycle, ETH's upward trend has not been broken:
The daily MA5, MA10, and MA30 moving averages are in a 'bullish arrangement', extending upwards like a staircase; the MA30 moving average at $2900 has never been effectively broken down.
Institutional funds are still entering: Grayscale ETH trust increased its holdings by 1200 yesterday, marking the 15th consecutive day of accumulation, with long-term funds quietly buying in.
This pullback seems more like a 'supply window' left for those who haven't boarded yet. Just like in 2021 when ETH pulled back from $2000 to $1800, at that time it seemed like it was about to crash, but later surged to $4800 — the panic during fluctuations is often an 'emotional trap' set by the main players.
A final reminder: In a volatile market, profits come from 'patience money'.
Today's market once again proves: The battle for ETH around $3000 will be fierce, don't be swayed by a few minutes of ups and downs.
If you have positions, don't rush to cut losses. As long as the $2900 support holds, just watch more and act less;
For those standing on the sidelines, set the $2880-$2910 range as a 'warning line'. Only take action when stabilization signals appear;
The most important thing is: don't go all in! The margin for error in a volatile market is low. Keeping half of your position flexible to respond is much more reliable than betting on a one-sided trend.
ETH's next sprint might just be after this pullback in the next couple of days. Remember: The market won't stay sideways forever; when most people lose patience due to fluctuations, the real opportunity will come.
#ETH突破3000
