The unemployment cycle has stretched to 23 weeks, manufacturing continues to shrink, and a million immigrant workers have vanished—behind this seemingly glamorous Non-Farm report, Trump's tariff hammer is pushing the US economy to the brink of a cliff, and the turmoil in the crypto circle has only just begun.
Last night, the US June Non-Farm Payroll data shocked the market: 147,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the expected 117,500, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, setting a new low since the pandemic. The market instantly boiled, and Bitcoin surged past $110,000!
But the carnival only lasted for 5 minutes. When deep data is peeled away layer by layer, a report full of fatal contradictions surfaces: the average unemployment cycle has stretched to 23 weeks (close to a three-year high), manufacturing jobs have lost 7,000 for two consecutive months, the unemployment rate for Black Americans has soared to 6.8%, and even more astonishing is—over a million immigrant workers have suddenly vanished as if they evaporated.
Non-Farm Illusion: The 'Decision Freeze' crisis triggered by Trump's tariffs.
The seemingly bright employment data actually hides a structural crisis. The devil in this report lies in three details:
Corporate hiring has entered a 'frozen period': Trump's erratic tariff policy (tariffs imposed on China, Canada, Mexico, etc. in April, with exemptions about to expire in July) forces companies to postpone all major decisions. Average weekly working hours have decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, exposing weak labor demand.
The labor pool is strangely shrinking: The drop in the unemployment rate is not due to strong employment, but rather a sharp reduction in the total labor force—over a million foreign-born workers 'disappeared' last quarter. Trump's immigration controls and expulsion policies have severed the lifeline of the labor force that businesses rely on.
Manufacturing faces precise strangulation: As a core indicator of Trump's 'economic revival,' manufacturing jobs have shrunk for two consecutive months. Tariffs have driven up production costs, forcing companies to lay off workers for self-preservation, completely shattering the 'reindustrialization' myth.
More dangerously, female workers are accelerating their exit from the workplace. Since January, there has been a net loss of 338,000 women, while the net increase of men is only 183,000; the gender imbalance suggests a loosening foundation in the employment market.
History Repeats: Bloody Moments in the Crypto Circle Under Non-Farm Payrolls.
When Non-Farm Payrolls collide with Trump's policies, the crypto circle has a history of bloodshed:
January 10, 2025: Non-Farm Payrolls add 256,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, Bitcoin plummets 1.42% in five minutes, and leveraged bulls face mass liquidation. The dollar index surges violently, and risk assets are indiscriminately sold off.
April 7, 2025: Trump suddenly announces a new tariff policy, Bitcoin crashes to $74,500 in a single day, and Ethereum halves to $1,411. Global stock markets halt trading, commodities plummet, and the fear index soars to the highest level since the pandemic.
Strange Correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has soared from 0.3 in 2022 to 0.7; traditional finance sneezes, and the crypto circle immediately runs a fever.
Institutionalization has become a double-edged sword—giants like BlackRock control 15% of circulating Bitcoin through ETFs, and a single-day capital outflow of $240 million can trigger a market tsunami.
Divine Strategy Life and Death Simulation: Three scenarios before the July 9th tariff deadline.
Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls are just the prologue; the real eye of the storm is the tariff negotiation deadline set by Trump on July 9th. Three scenarios will dominate the fate of the crypto circle:
Nightmare Scenario (Full-scale Tariff War): If Trump imposes punitive tariffs of 60%-70% on 60-70 countries, a rupture in the global supply chain will trigger a 'stagflation nuclear bomb.' Bitcoin may repeat the April crash, with Arthur Hayes warning of a plunge to the abyss of $90,000-$95,000.
Game Theory Scenario (Partial Exemption Extension): A temporary compromise is reached between China, the US, and Europe, and expectations for Fed rate cuts warm up. Bitcoin might take the opportunity to counterattack, with 10x Research targeting a price of $116,000, but $112,000 becomes a 'ghost gate' for bulls.
Black Swan Scenario (Data Fraud Exposure): The current contradiction between the unemployment rate and the shrinking labor force has raised doubts. If the truth about the disappearance of a million immigrants is revealed, the collapse of the dollar's credibility will lead to an epic surge of 20% in Bitcoin's price in a single day.
Beware of the lethal strangulation of algorithmic trading! Historical data shows that within 30-60 minutes after Non-Farm Payrolls are released, quantitative programs trigger a 3%-5% 'spike market,' leaving leveraged players in ruins.
Institutional Dark War: A trillion-dollar bet on the 'Rate Cut Hedge' new order.
While retail investors are obsessed with K-line charts, Wall Street is restructuring the rules of the game:
The competition for stablecoin dominance is heating up: Trump strongly pushes for the dollar-linked stablecoin USD1, while Circle rapidly applies for a national trust license. Once USDC receives federal backing, hundreds of billions in hot money will flood into compliant stablecoins, leaving altcoins with deadly liquidity siphoning.
Counter-cyclical sectors are rising: RWA (Real World Assets) tokens Ondo and DePIN project Helium surged 80% in a week. Gold has risen 23% this year, crushing Bitcoin's fatigue, indicating that safe-haven funds are abandoning mainstream coins.
Leverage liquidation chain is about to explode: Currently, the open interest of BTC contracts is concentrated in the $108,000-$112,000 range; if the price fluctuates 5% post-Non-Farm Payrolls, it will trigger over $500 million in cascading liquidations.
A leaked BlackRock internal report reveals: The probability of a rate cut in September remains anchored at 80%, and smart money has begun to position in AI+DeFi leaders (FET, RNDR). Historical patterns show that Non-Farm disturbances last only 1-3 trading days, then revert to technical dominance.
Trump's tariff guillotine hangs high above—on July 4th, he officially sent tariff rate notifications to 10-12 countries; July 9th will be the final negotiation deadline. When companies freeze hiring due to decision paralysis and a million immigrant workers suddenly vanish, this 'most contradictory Non-Farm Payrolls' is merely the calm before the storm.
Tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), all eyes are on the final battle of the Non-Farm Payrolls. If the unemployment rate and wage data tear apart again, the $110,000 level for Bitcoin will no longer be a technical resistance but rather a mass grave for leveraged bulls.
I am the Divine Strategy; the market always wavers between lies and truth.
But the real winners never bet on data.
Rather, they sense the shift in liquidity amidst chaos.#非农就业数据来袭 #美国加征关税