Missile trajectories resonate with candlestick charts, and 100,000 liquidators are just the first batch of sacrifices in a $3.3 trillion game.
US President Trump’s '24-hour ultimatum' binds the fate of the Gaza ceasefire to the cryptocurrency market, casting it into a bloody gamble.
Today, Trump claimed he would know within 24 hours whether Hamas accepts Israel's 'final proposal' for a Gaza ceasefire. At this moment, the smoke of war over Gaza has not cleared—Israeli forces just launched the deadliest attack in months, causing 94 Palestinian deaths, while Hamas is urgently negotiating, demanding a US guarantee that the ceasefire will ultimately end the war.
The lightning of geopolitics has struck the heart of the crypto world.
Just ten days ago, Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel instantly ignited the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin surged to over $105,000, Ethereum soared 7.2% in one day, and $76 million in short positions disappeared in a flash. Funds rushed like bloodthirsty sharks towards the signal of 'geopolitical relief', and the script for risk assets seems to play out perfectly.
But this is an illusion! The 'hedging property' of cryptocurrency is essentially a bloodthirsty two-headed snake.
When Trump issued a 'unconditional surrender' war threat to Iran on June 14, Bitcoin staged an epic rollercoaster: first surging $3,000 to exceed the $109,000 peak, then plummeting $2,500 after a 'decapitation warning', with 112,000 leveraged players caught in a bloodbath of $394 million in liquidations.
Even more brutal was July 3, when Trump's pushed 'Too Big to Fail' bill narrowly passed the Senate with a 51-50 vote, resulting in 101,000 liquidations across the network totaling $261 million, with a $2.61 million single BTC liquidation horror unfolding on Bybit exchange. The two blades of war and policy have turned the crypto world into a digital graveyard.
At this moment, the 24-hour countdown for the Gaza ceasefire is precisely the most dangerous 'Schrodinger's cat box' in the crypto world:
If the ceasefire succeeds, the market will replay the carnival script of June 24—temporarily sealing the Middle East powder keg, capital will flow back to risk assets, and Bitcoin may once again surge past the $110,000 mark.
If the ceasefire breaks, the Gaza conflict will ignite a 'triple explosion' nuclear bomb: Iranian-affiliated armed retaliation (the Houthis have announced their participation), Saudi Arabia halting normalization negotiations with Israel, and the US Congress stopping the review of the (GENIUS Act)—Bitcoin could flash crash by more than 10%.
A deeper storm has been brewing in the darkness. Hamas's demand for a 'guarantee of an end to hostilities' points directly to Trump's shocking conspiracy to 'take over Gaza'—earlier this year in February, he threatened Egypt and Jordan to accept Palestinian refugees or else cut off aid, which was globally condemned as 'ethnic cleansing'.
When political maniacs use humanitarian crises as bargaining chips, the 'anti-censorship' halo of cryptocurrency is reduced to a bloody arbitrage tool:
Iranian people receive overseas aid through cryptocurrency
Massive BTC transfer chain on the dark web arms trade can be traced
The US (GENIUS Act) mandates 100% dollar reserves for stablecoins, pushing Tether towards a $46 billion redemption cliff
However, giants like BlackRock coldly devour. Their Bitcoin holdings have reached 620,000, with 1 in every 4 Bitcoins locked in a 'digital Fort Knox' by listed companies. While retail investors lie dead in the leveraged gambling, Wall Street is incorporating crypto assets into their balance sheets—DDC Enterprise just completed a $528 million Bitcoin special financing, with unrealized profits exceeding $7 billion.
Shen Ce’s sharp commentary: The crypto world has never been so fragile, yet never so greedy.
Trump's 24-hour ultimatum completely shatters the 'digital gold' disguise of cryptocurrency. It was never a safe haven, but a geopolitical blood pressure monitor—when the drums of war sound, the candlestick chart is merely a mirrored projection of missile trajectories.
But more terrifying than liquidation is our depraved instinct to smell money amidst the bloodshed. When children in Gaza are shot while waiting for food, the crypto KOLs are calculating the premium space brought by the ceasefire agreement—Is this a technological revolution or a mutation of human nature?
By this time tomorrow, Hamas's response will be revealed. But regardless of the success or failure of the ceasefire, a group of people have already secured their victory: those market makers who factor in war premiums into option prices, those politicians trading BTC on insider information, and those giants building virtual vaults on the rubble of the physical world.
And you, dear leveraged gambler, are merely a line of loss on their balance sheet.
The crypto battlefield opens a new chapter tomorrow. Want to see who will plant the next bomb in the 'ceasefire carnival'? Follow Shen Ce, and we’ll take you through the bloody sea behind the candlestick chart.